I could be well moved if I were as you.
If I could pray to move, prayers would move me.
But I am constant as the Northern Star,
Of whose true fixed and resting quality
There is no fellow in the firmament.
The skies are painted with unnumbered sparks;
They are all fire, and every one doth shine;
But there’s but one in all doth hold his place.Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene 1
I've been watching politics and, especially, elections, like a lot of guys watch sports. This has been an interest of mine since the 1980 Presidential election when I helped in a modest way by handing out pamphlets and bumper stickers at the local mall for the Reagan campaign.
And I can say with great certainty that I've never seen anything quite like what is going on today with Donald Trump.
My bemusement with all things Trump began early in 2016 when the GOP primaries were in full swing. I was aware that Donald Trump existed before he descended the golden escalator to announce his candidacy, but I was no more than aware of him; I'm not interested in the New York real estate scene, and watch very little television; I harbor a particular dislike for "reality" television. So, on that day, I recognized the name, but not much more.
Then, his candidacy took off. I remember the late Charles Krauthammer, who, like me, had initially dismissed the Trump run as a publicity stunt, commenting on the radio that "...it's beginning to look like he might actually pull this off." Then, on Election Eve 2016, I was out with my hunting partner on a Colorado elk hunt and crawled into my sleeping bag that night depressed at the thought of a disastrous Hillary Clinton Presidency. Then, the next morning, I climbed in the pickup to warm it up, turned on the satellite radio, and a few moments later shouted at my buddy, "Holy crap! He pulled it off!"
Donald John Trump, unlike Shakespeare's take on Julius Caesar, is not quite as constant as the Northern Star; he is mercurial and could often use a good dose of messaging discipline. He often comes off as prickly and thin-skinned; he is a counter-puncher but, at times, has alienated people who could be valuable allies.
Here's the thing: It's working. Donald Trump is absolutely dominating GOP primary polling. He's at +42.5% in the RealClearPolitics average, whereas at this point in 2015, he was polling at +7.7%.
He's also pulling ahead of incumbent President Joe Biden in general-election polling, although it's increasingly likely that Biden won't be the Democrats' candidate.
Recently, my RedState colleague Becky Noble hit on one reason Donald Trump commands such a following.
But he stopped after those words and appeared to not be able to go on. For roughly 35 seconds, Trump is visibly emotional at the thought of what has happened to the country since he left the White House. It is a short clip of video, but arguably, one of the most powerful that may come out of this election cycle.
No words… 🙏🔥 pic.twitter.com/gFtmm0Jut0
— Wayne DuPree (@WayneDupreeShow) September 21, 2023
Maybe that's the point. People, especially the coterie of die-hard supporters he commands, see him as genuine. That's not a claim you can make about many politicians these days. You certainly can't say that about Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Donald Trump may be thin-skinned and prickly, but he's genuinely thin-skinned and prickly. After all the Democrats have thrown at him, it's hardly surprising; were I in his shoes, I'd probably be thin-skinned and prickly, too.
Now we see Donald Trump commanding a big following in, of all places, deep-blue California.
“The grassroots across California is all behind Trump,” said Bill Essayli, a conservative Republican state assemblymember from Corona, a city in northwestern Riverside County. “He’s the guy that excites them and energizes them and they think that he should have won in 2020. And they’re still behind him and 2024.”
Granted that barring some major catastrophe like Los Angeles and the Bay Area both collapsing into the Pacific Ocean, California's big stack of Electoral College votes will land comfortably in the Democrat column. But the passion driving Trump supporters, even there, can't be overlooked.
As someone once said, predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. But at this juncture, another Trump nomination is looking likely. Trump has pulled even with Biden in most general election models, is pulling ahead in some, and is gaining ground with (at least) GOP-leaning independents. He's looking like a better bet in the Electoral College, as well, which a lot of popular polls don't properly model.
The GOP — including Always-Trumpers, Never-Trumpers, and every shade of Trumper in between — should probably wrap their brains around the idea that Donald Trump is and will remain a force to be reckoned with in the Republican Party.
In closing, I will say this: I have not and will not express any preference for any GOP presidential candidate. I'll keep those preferences to myself. At this point, I'm still waiting to be persuaded. But I will say this: In the interest of winning, I will vote for the GOP's nominee, whoever that may be. I would encourage all readers to do likewise. If they have proved nothing else, the last three years have proved that nobody the current Democrat Party will nominate should be sitting at the Resolute Desk.
