In a move that should come as a surprise to no one, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is reportedly thinking of dropping out of the Democratic Party and forging ahead with his political career as an Independent.

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin said Thursday that he is “thinking seriously” about leaving the Democratic Party and becoming an independent before the 2024 election.

“I’m thinking seriously. For me, I have to have peace of mind, basically,” Manchin, who previously described himself as an independent Democrat, told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval, according to The Hill.

“The brand has become so bad — the D brand and R brand. In West Virginia, the D brand because it’s [the] national brand. It’s not the Democrats in West Virginia, it’s the Democrats in Washington,” he also said. “You’ve heard me say a million times I’m not a Washington Democrat.”

Of course, there are fewer Democrats in West Virginia with each passing day. Joe Manchin is not faring well in polls against the presumptive GOP challenger, Governor Jim Justice, and this proposed move to Independent status would enable West Virginia’s Democrats to nominate a candidate to run against both Manchin and Justice, which would certainly work out to the Governor’s advantage.

On top of all that, however, Sen. Manchin is also apparently considering a 2024 presidential bid, again as an Independent.

Democrats’ concerns about party member Sen. Joe Manchin joining the 2024 presidential race as an independent and taking votes from President Joe Biden appear real, a recent poll shows.

Manchin is considered a moderate. But as a Democrat in deeply conservative West Virginia, he has long been a wild card within his party – most recently having opposed some of Biden’s nominees and criticizing his green energy policies.

The senator has yet to say whether he will seek reelection in 2024 or run for president as an independent, which increasingly concerned some Senate Democrats.

Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) told Politico about a conversation he had with Manchin in the spring regarding running for president, saying, “I have advised him against it. I think it would be a terrible idea. It would help Donald Trump.”

It’s pretty early yet to speculate about who would help whom in this possible match-up, but Senator Hickenlooper’s comment probably isn’t too far off base. The last such three-way matchup, in 1992, saw Reform Party candidate Ross Perot facing off against Republican George H. W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton, and who Perot affected most in that election is still subject to debate. But Bill Clinton won that election against a man who, a year earlier, had enjoyed stratospheric approval ratings. Draw what conclusions you will.

Joe Manchin’s idea of jump-starting his flagging political career as an Independent is probably a futile gesture. His political career in West Virginia is effectively over. One recent survey had him rated as one of the least-popular Senators, rating just after Mitch McConnell. Earlier in 2023, he floated the idea of a presidential run with Republican Jon Huntsman on a “unity” ticket, and that idea fell flat. Manchin may be looking at Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s jumping the Democrat ship as a model, but Sen. Sinema will be facing opponents on both left and right in her 2024 re-election bid, which doesn’t bode well for her chances.

At some point, Manchin needs to realize that his Senate career, and quite possibly his political career, is over. Some bad missteps on his part and the changing electorate in West Virginia will see to that. It’s possible – just possible – that he may be able to salvage something by crossing Jordan and becoming a Republican, but at this point, even that might not be enough.

Joe Manchin is a creature of another time, a moderate in a party that is swinging sharply left. He has shown himself to be too easily rolled by offers of phony deals. The people of West Virginia have noticed, the people of the United States have noticed, and unless some dramatic event or change intervenes, after the 2024 election, Senator Manchin will become Private Citizen Manchin.