You can hear heads exploding on that headline.
Everyone that follows politics at one time or another is a political prognosticator that will tell others who is going to win. That is about as American as Apple Pie and Nancy Pelosi jokes. Most of us get it wrong though.
Not this guy.
Political historian, Allan Lichtman from American University has picked the last nine Presidential winners and says that Trump will win in 2020 unless Democrats go ahead and impeach. According to The Hill…
An American University professor who has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections says President Trump will win the 2020 election unless congressional Democrats, “grow a spine,” CNN reported.
“It’s a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right,” Lichtman told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday.
Lichtman has developed a system of 13 “key factors” that help determine whether the party in the White House will maintain its hold, according to CNN. The factors range from whether the party has an incumbent president running to the country’s short- and long-term economic conditions to foreign policy successes and failures. If the party loses out on six factors or more, he says they will lose the presidency.
Wow. This guy might be a political savant but he also sounds angry and we all know angry professors are never fun to be around.
He is trying to reinforce something here that is being debated right now in the Democratic House leadership side. I covered part of this earlier today here at Red State with Who Was The Biggest Loser In The Mueller Presser? Nancy Pelosi and here After Mueller Press Conference Rashida Tlaib’s Call For Impeachment Gains Steam
Lichtman wants the Democrats to go full steam ahead on holding the hearings for impeachment and to have Trump and his administration be put on trial without the actual trial. This would keep the idea of scandals floating well into next years Presidential election cycle with tons of video floating around. Plus CNN would probably pair up Cuomo and Lemon for a Nancy Grace-style nightly breakdown of all the things Jerry Nadler did or didn’t find.
While the President has an extremely loyal base, at what point do others in the country just say enough is enough?
Pelosi knows the risks here and that is why she is slow-walking this while the newbies in her caucus are yelling full speed ahead. If Professor Lichtman is right impeachment is the only chance that any Democratic nominee for President has a shot of taking down Trump. So the choices are to run the impeachment route and gamble, or hope that the Dems pick someone who can take Trump on and win.
What to do, what to do.
Lichtman has picked the last nine winners which means Trump in 2016, so I’m going to have to give the nod to Trump winning next year.
In the meantime, I’m also going to advise that people stay away from any professor who seems grumpy. Paying that amount for college and having to deal with sourpusses just does not seem like fun compared to dealing with sourpusses on social media.
Social media is free.
Check out my other post on Supreme Court: Transgender People Can Use Any Bathroom In Schoolsand my podcast Bourbon On The Rocks plus like Bourbon On The Rocks on Facebook and follow me on the twitters at IRISHDUKE2