Comparing Early Voting Data, NC-Specific Polling Data: Who Wins?

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton are introduced during the presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Monday, Sept. 26, 2016. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

I’ll likely be a nervous wreck by the time the final results come in tomorrow night.

I honestly have no idea how this election is going to shake out, but I’m looking at every potential angle and praying for the best outcome for all of us.


For the state of North Carolina, that “best outcome” will be in keeping Pat McCrory in the governor’s office, Dan Forest as Lt. Governor, and Sweet Meteor of Death at the national level.

Unfortunately, SMOD is not on the ballot in North Carolina, even as a write-in, so we’re really out of luck, there.

CNN released their findings today, based on early voting data for the state of North Carolina and it paints an interesting picture of how the state is shaping up.

In the national race, polls have Clinton leading Trump in North Carolina.

But a CNN analysis of early voting paints a very different picture and suggests that Clinton has underperformed President Obama’s 2012 performance in the Tar Heel State and Trump has outperformed Mitt Romney.

It might seem that Democrats have built up a big early lead. More than 1.3 million Democrats have already voted compared to 990,000 Republicans.

In 2012, Obama led in the early voting in the state, but lost the state when the final count came in.

As of Saturday, the final day of early voting, slightly fewer Democrats had cast ballots while 125,000 more Republicans have voted this time. If this election shapes up like the last, Donald Trump would win North Carolina.

There is one key difference that complicates the data: Independent voters came out this time in droves. They cast nearly 810,000 votes, up a whopping 42% from 2012.


Complicated, indeed.

I actually took these results and compared them to the latest state-specific poll released, which would be the Elon University Poll.

According to the Elon poll, less than 1% separates Clinton and Trump, with Clinton leading 42% to 41.2%.

That is a true toss-up, and as I’ve said, this election may very well come down to the Independents or undecided voters.

The gubernatorial race was even closer, with Democrat tool, Attorney General Roy Cooper garnering 44.4% of the vote, to Governor Pat McCrory’s 44.3% – the difference of a single vote.

Remember that thing about Independent voters?

The Elon poll showed that they tend to favor Governor McCrory, 54% to 46%.

If that holds true across the state, Governor McCrory will likely pull this election off and will be able to continue his amazing work for the state for another four years.

Who said the road to the White House 2020 would be an easy one?

Ok. I’m just pondering, there.

I have my Pepto-Bismol, Tylenol, and a leather strap to bite down on to see me through tomorrow night.

Let’s all hope and pray for the best.



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