Tim Walz's Manly Essence Isn't Helping Kamala Win Male Voters

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

It was a sign of weakness when Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Harris needed to boost her street cred with the Democrat Party's far left wing, and Walz's antics as governor fit that bill much better than did Shapiro's solid performance. Second, as was shown in her CNN interview, Harris is an immensely insecure individual, and Walz filled the bill of "emotional support animal" better than Shapiro. Finally, there was a need for a strong personality on the ticket. While Shapiro seems to be competent, for a leftist, there is nothing about him that screams "manly." Walz, with his presumed stellar career as an Army noncommissioned officer and his career as a teacher, principal, and high school football coach, was thought to fill the bill nicely.

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“They saw him as a man’s man, and I think the idea was that he is somebody who could connect with these very alienated male voters who feel that the trend of national policy in recent years has been very much tilted in favor of women,” [Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University] said.

That might have had some relationship to reality until Walz's abject cowardice and flirtation with Stolen Valot had him running from his military experience like a scalded dog, and his sponsorship of a high school "gay-straight alliance club" left many wondering why a grown man would want to get involved in the sex lives of his students.

A slew of new polls show that the Democrat bet on Walz to attract male voters has failed. Kamala Harris is losing the battle to win over male voters in a handful of critical states, and she's not doing all that well with women.

As a baseline for comparison, in 2016, Donald Trump won 46.1% of the vote (306 electoral votes) and Hillary Clinton won 48.2% (232 electoral votes). Men went for Trump 52 to 41 percent (11 points), while women voted for Hillary by 54 to 39 percent (15 points).

There was a similar effect in 2020. Trump won the male vote by 53 to 45 percent (8 points), and Biden won the female vote by 57 to 42 percent (15 points) while losing the election by 46.8% to 51/3% and the electoral college vote 232 to 306.

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This year, there are only a handful of states in play unless something triggers an electoral catastrophe for one side or the other: North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Polling in those states show the danger brewing for the Good Ship Cackle-cackle. Nevertheless, let's take a look at these states based on the gender breakout of the numbers to see what that might mean.


RELATED: CNN Starts to Freak Out About Kamala Harris After Key Swing State Shifts Towards Trump


Pennsylvania

A new CNN/SSRS poll showed Trump leading Harris among likely male voters in Pennsylvania by 15 points — 55 percent to 40 percent — and Harris leading Trump among female voters in the state by 11 points — 53 percent to 42 percent.

In 2020, men went for Trump in Pennsylvania by 55 to 45 percent and women to Biden by the same 55 to 45 split. Biden won the state by 1.2 points. Harris can't win Pennsylvania, losing men by 15 and winning women by 11. This reflects a four-point gain in men for Trump since the poll was last conducted in March when Biden was still in the race.

Nevada

The new survey of likely voters in Nevada showed Trump with an 18-point lead among male voters, 57 percent to 39 percent, while Harris had a 16-point lead among female voters, 55 percent to 39 percent.

Trump lost Nevada by 2.3 points while winning men by 5 points (51-46) and losing women by 10 points (54-44). With this gender break, it will be very difficult for Kamala to win in Nevada. The three most recent polls in Nevada have Trump leading.

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North Carolina

An East Carolina University poll conducted Aug. 26-28 among likely voters in the state found Trump leading by 9 points among male voters — 51.6 percent to 42.8 percent — and Harris leading by nearly 5 points among female voters — 49.5 percent to 45.1 percent.

North Carolina went for Trump by 1.3 points in 2020, 49.9 percent to 48.6 percent. Trump won men 54 percent to 45 percent (9 points) and lost women 46 percent to 53 percent (7 points). Trump's position in North Carolina is not unassailable, but Harris would lose if the election were held today. And I suspect her position will get worse the closer we get to election day.

Georgia

In Georgia, Trump has a 10-point lead among male voters, 53 percent to 43 percent, and Harris has a 10-point lead among female voters, 53 percent to 43 percent, according to a CNN/SSRS survey.

I'm one of those troglodytes who think Georgia was clearly stolen by the Democrats in 2020. That said, the official outcome was Biden winning 49.47 percent compared to Trump's 49.24 percent. Biden won the female vote by nine points (54-45) and lost the male vote by 12 points (43-55). Georgia is too close to call but if shenanigans are prevented in DeKalb County, Trump has to be the favorite — six of eight polls since August 28 have Trump leading.

To fill out the field, I dug in beyond those in the post using 538.com's data.

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Michigan

In 2020, Biden won 50.62 percent to Trump's 47.84 percent (2.8 points). Men went to Trump by 10 points (54 percent to 44 percent), and women went to Biden by 13 points (57 percent to 44 percent). The most recent Michigan poll with a gender breakout is Morning Consult, which shows Harris leading by three points, with women breaking for Harris by 16 points (54 to 38 percent). I can't find male data without paying over $100 monthly for it. Michigan may be out of reach.

Wisconsin

Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by 49.45 percent to 48.82 percent (0.6 points). He won women 56 to 43 percent (13 points) and lost to men 44 to 55 percent (11 points). The most recent polls show Harris leading by three points. Women are currently going for Harris by 55 to 38 percent (17 points). Again, no male data is available.

National

When we turn to national data, the most recent Marist Poll has Harris leading by a single point. She leads Trump among women by 15 points while Trump outpaces Harris among men by 12. We can infer from the 2020 data, where Trump led men by eight, and Biden led women by 15, that it isn't good enough to win. The New York Times poll that caused heads to explode when it showed Trump leading by one point (see Trump Takes Shocking Lead in Top-Level Poll, Completely Shifts Perception of the Race), has Kamala winning women 53 to 39 percent (14 points) and losing men 56 to 42 points (14 points). If 2020 data is a guide, Trump has a solid lead.

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Whatever manliness the Harris campaign hoped to evoke by bringing the cowardly, slovenly Tim Walz on board clearly is not working. Kamala is scoring worse with men nationally and in key swing states than that most unmanly of men, Joe Biden, did in 2020.

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