If there is one geographical feature of Ukraine that Putin’s War has moved to the forefront of people’s minds, it is Zmiinyi Island, also known as Serpent Island or Snake Island. It is a speck of rock in the Black Sea, some 20 miles from the mouth of the Danube, measuring about 700 yards by 700 yards, or 0.15 square miles. Snake Island leaped into the public consciousness on February 24 when two Russian ships, the guided-missile cruiser Moskva (see BREAKING. Russian Flagship Sinks While Being Towed to Port) and patrol boat Vasily Bykov demanded the surrender of the 13 Ukrainian border guards stationed on the island and received the epic response “Russian warship, go f*** yourself.”
The Russians proceeded to fortify Snake Island with SA-15 Gauntlet surface-to-air missiles and close-range air defense in the form of ZS 23-2 guns and Strela missiles. They also based a few patrol craft at the island. If the Russians decided to deploy their S-300 there, it could change the shape of the conflict in southern Ukraine. The S-300 has a range of about 120 miles. That would prevent the Ukrainian Air Force from operating over Odesa or Ukrainian territory between Odesa and the Danube. This has become more worrisome as the possibility of Russia conducting an amphibious operation south of Odesa to outflank Ukrainian defenses and link up with Russian separatists in the Transnistria region of Moldova.
Looks like Russians want to occupy Besarabia, a part of Odesa region which is separated from the mainland with Dniester gulf and connected only with one bridge. If occupied after a landing, it opens the road to Modlova, and via Russia-occupied Transnistria – to Odesa backyard. /1 https://t.co/yCEpRqrLAi pic.twitter.com/DN9s9YkdJN
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 26, 2022
You can read my take on that operation in 10 Days Into Putin’s ‘New Phase’ of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, There Are Minor Advances but the Clock Is Ticking.
For the past week, we’ve seen the Ukrainians begin a deep shaping operation directed at Snake Island. “Deep” and “shaping” are not merely adjectives; they are terms of art. A deep operation seeks to disrupt uncommitted enemy forces. Depth can be defined in terms of distance or in the time it would take for the uncommitted forces to reach the battlefield. A shaping operation sets the conditions for success in the commander’s planned decisive operation.
The operation started on April 30 with the Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) carrying out attacks on Snake Island’s close-range air defense systems.
#Ukraine: Some footage made its way to us from the famous Snake Island in the Black Sea.
Here's a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drone strike a few days ago against a Russian ZU-23-2 autocannon position- during the same event a Strela-10 SAM system was struck. pic.twitter.com/w0zuKFzsnA
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 2, 2022
Another Ukrainian TB2 UCAV video reportedly showing strikes on Russian positions on Snake Island. https://t.co/0yPcB4PT4Y pic.twitter.com/0dVDZ2WM70
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 3, 2022
That attack got rid of the immediate risk to the UCAVs. Then, on May 2, the UCAVs came for the patrol boats.
2 Russian Raptor class patrol boats hit by a TB2, reportedly near Snake Island pic.twitter.com/3F1o5JlIOb
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 2, 2022
**UPDATE**
Two #Russian Navy vessels seen east of Snake Island.
This is hours after the TB2 drone attack on two Assault boats, so likely different boats. Does not appear that attacked boats survived to sail away.
Corrected typo in initial graphic#OSINT #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Vd2n0xpeuh
— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) May 2, 2022
The UCAVs took out the SA-15 (the Russian name is TOR) and its Transporter-Launcher and Radar (TLAR) on May 6.
Russian Tor missile system explodes on occupied Snake Island after Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 attack. pic.twitter.com/WmlFQui75g
— WorldOnAlert (@worldonalert) May 6, 2022
#Ukraine: New footage from the famous Snake Island – a Russian 9A330/9A331 Tor surface-to-air missile TLAR was destroyed by a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 UAV. pic.twitter.com/06IaahmPb2
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 6, 2022
On May 7, the Russians tried to replace the destroyed SA-15. The UCAVs were waiting.
#Ukraine: A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drone strike struck and destroyed what appears to be Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft, again at Snake Island. pic.twitter.com/w7qrgzWaPo
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 7, 2022
The landing craft can be seen carrying a Tor surface-to-air missile TLAR. I therefore suspect that the Ukrainian TB2s struck Snake Island a second time as Russian forces attempted to replenish the garrison on the island and replace the destroyed Tor. pic.twitter.com/ht5Dv3BR4s
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) May 7, 2022
Below is a collection of battle damage assessment (BDA) images.
Between April 30th and May 7th, Ukrainian TB2 UCAVs have hit and destroyed nine Russian ground based A2/AD assets and naval vessels on Snake Island.
The Ukrainians have systematically destroyed Russians assets on the Island and have also successfully destroyed reinforcements. pic.twitter.com/ebkU6YsgPH
— Kemal (@kemal_115) May 7, 2022
***UPDATE***
Smoke still visible from attack on latest #Ukraine️ Navy TB2 attack on #Russian forces at Snake Island in Sat image 09:07 UTC today
Hit Serna class landing craft appears still there. Likely wreck
2 assault boats (e.g. Raptor) seen heading towards Ukraine pic.twitter.com/2sMWYsKFg5
— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) May 7, 2022
Not long after the landing craft was smoked, two Ukrainian Air Force SU-27s paid a visit to the island.
New TB2 footage was released of Ukrainian attacks on Snake Island. This time it shows 2 Ukrainian SU-27s bombing the island.
This explains why all the buildings around the lighthouse were destroyed between Friday noon and Saturday morning. pic.twitter.com/E91V7PooJW
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) May 7, 2022
What does all of this mean? There are a couple of possibilities. The first one is that the Ukrainians intend to keep the island sterile. Without long-range air defense systems on Snake Island, its main purpose is to provide fixed air defense for Russian Black Sea Fleet ships operating out of Crimea. As the Russian Navy seems less than anxious to conduct operations near Ukraine, the garrison on the island would control about 9 miles of airspace that Ukraine would be able to avoid with no problem. Knocking out the defense systems does have the virtue of requiring substantial effort and risk on the part of Russia to keep the island garrisoned and supplied. That said, I’ve seen no previous indication that Ukraine is willing to focus this kind of attention on a target without a purpose.
The second possibility is more interesting. Snake Island is about 170 miles from the Black Sea Fleet’s homeport of Sebastopol. The maximum range of the Neptune anti-ship missile is also 170 miles.
Snake Island to Sebastopol: 174 miles
Maximum range of Neptune anti-ship missile: 174 miles pic.twitter.com/NRnlzn6jLm— streiff (@streiffredstate) May 7, 2022
If the second option is on the table, then what we are looking at here is a shaping attack that is removing the ability of the Russians on Snake Island to resist a Ukrainian air assault operation in preparation for a deep attack neutralize the Black Sea Fleet.
A mixture of Neptune and British Brimstone missiles on Snake Island could neutralize the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. With suitable supporting air defense units on Snake Island and the Ukrainian coast, It would also open the area to Ukrainian air force operations. Assuming that the Ukrainians can sustain the garrison, it could become an unsinkable defensive position that could put paid to any attempt by Russia to conduct an amphibious operation or exercise naval power in the war in Ukraine.
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