President Donald Trump gestures towards members on the media on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2019, after returning from United Nations General Assembly. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
A new poll is out by Emerson Polling and there is nothing in it that is good news for the Democrats.
Primary Choices
I must confess that Biden is showing more strength than I’d expected and Warren is a lot weaker than she looked to me earlier. I’m still not convinced that Biden or Sanders can win a Democrat primary in this environment. If Sanders is the nominee, this will be an utter boatrace.
Good news for all the True Conservatives®, Bulwarkers, and general NeverTrumpers. Trump’s primary opponents are surging:
The president’s support in the Republican primary increased this month to 93% against primary challengers Bill Weld and Joe Walsh.
No word on the Evan McMullin boomlet or the Mitt Romney White-Knight-to-the-Rescue dream but I’m sure they are the ONLY!!1! way to conserve conservatism.
Momentum
‘
Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining momentum in the race for the Democratic nomination, increasing 2 points from October to at 27%. Former Vice President Joe Biden is also at 27%, holding steady from October. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in third place at 20%, down a point. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 7% and Andrew Yang rounds out the top 5 at 4%. All other candidates are below 4%. (MM, n= 468, +/- 4.6%)
Not sure +2 is momentum, it’s more like a rounding error but that a septuagenarian socialist heart attack survivor is leading the Democrat field tells you much of what you need to know about the Democrat candidates.
Head-to-Head Match-ups
This is pretty consistent with a battleground poll taken New York Times Upshot/Siena College earlier in the month, see This Poll With Trump Leading in Battleground States Has the New York Times Shouting a Warning to the Democrats.
CREDIT: New York Times
What this really means is, in my opinion, is that Trump wins because none of the top Democrats will gain strength as they become more prominent. If they are only tied with Trump now, they will be beaten like rented mules in the general.
Demographics
Sanders continues to hold a strong lead with younger voters in the primary. Among voters under 50, Sanders received 37% support, followed by Warren with 22%, Biden with 15% and Yang with 7%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden continues to lead with 44% support, followed by Warren with 16%, Sanders with 13% and Buttigieg with 12%.
Interesting. Biden is strongest with the voting bloc most likely to turn out for a primary election.
Sanders holds a lead among Hispanic or Latino voters with 36% support, followed by Biden with 23% and Warren with 22%. Sanders leads by a smaller margin with White voters with 29% support followed by Biden and Warren with 21%, and Buttigieg with 9%. Biden continues to lead with African American voters with 42% support, followed by Warren with 18%, Sanders with 17% and Buttigieg with 7%.
This is interesting. It looks like that only Biden commands loyalty from black Democrats and so the question is where do they go if Biden is not in the race. My guess is, looking at 2016 and the effect of not having Barack Obama on the ballot, is that a lot of them stay home. We also can’t dismiss the anecdotal evidence of Trump making inroads.
When asked if they would support the Democratic nominee for president regardless if he or she was not their first choice in the primaries the majority of respondents said they would. 68% said they were very likely and 15% said they were somewhat likely. 93% of Buttigieg supporters reported that they were very likely to support the nominee. Followed with 80% for Warren supporters, and 77% of Biden supporters. The least likely to support the nominee of the top candidates were Sanders supporters, with only 61% reporting that they were very likely.
This is interesting, too. Suppose Warren gets the nomination, and I still think she’s the most likely outcome, you could have large numbers of black voters and a third of Sanders voters just sitting it out.
Impeachment
The 800-pound gorilla in the corner is impeachment. It is an odds-on favorite that the House will vote articles of impeachment against Trump. It is equally a sure bet that the Senate will reject them. So how is impeachment going to play out?
Support for impeachment has flipped since October from 48% support with 44% opposing to now 45% opposed and 43% in support. The biggest swing is among Independents, who oppose impeachment now 49% to 34%, which is a reversal from October where they supported impeachment 48% to 39%.
In short, it’s a dog. GOP support behind Trump is rock solid and if independents are fleeing from impeachment this is a loser. This is a continuation of an trend that has been identified, see New Impeachment Poll Shows Pelosi and Schiff May Be Setting Democrats up for a 2020 Election Disaster.
All in all, the Emerson poll validates the general trend we’re seeing. Impeachment is losing any popularity it did have. The GOP is unified behind Trump. The Democrat field is fractured and have been driven from a Center-Left party to a Communist-Left party. It is still a long time until election day, but Trump is in much better shape than I’d feared he would be.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member