Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1972. In 2016, Donald Trump had he closest call of any GOP candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 losing the state by ~1.5 percentage points. President Trump is predicting that he’ll take Minnesota in 2020 and in that quest he has an improbable ally, Minnesota Democrat Ilhan Omar. This is how Trump announced it:
In 2016 I almost won Minnesota. In 2020, because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar, & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever, I will win the State! “We are going to be a nightmare to the President,” she say. No, AOC Plus 3 are a Nightmare for America!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2019
Part of this is typical Trumpian bluster but a large part of it isn’t. As mt colleague, Bonchie, pointed out, Omar’s favorable/unfavorable numbers in Minnesota are in the toilet.
% Favorable/Unfav (Net)
Reg voters 19/36 (-17)
Dem 41/11 (30)
GOP 5/65 (-60)
Ind 14/44 (-30)
Men 20/44 (-24)
Women 18/29 (-11)
Lib 46/11 (35)
Mod 12/28 (-16)
Con 6/68 (-62)
White 16/44 (-28)
Black 32/7 (25)
Hispanic 21/24 (-3)https://t.co/krlXkWcU54
— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) July 21, 2019
(BTW, I have lots of questions about this poll. Like how can she be -24 among men and -11 among women and still be +30 among Democrats? I knew a lot of Democrats were sexless drones but I never thought the number was this high.)
If this poll is even remotely accurate and Trump can force the Minnesota Democrat party, along with national Democrats, to support and defend Omar then here radical stances and anti-Semitism could easily tip the balance in Minnesota given that Minnesota has a much better economy now than it did in 2016 and Trump has the power of the incumbency.
Politico says this about the poll:
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week found that while Omar has net unfavorability ratings among Americans who know her, she’s popular among Democrats and especially liberal Democrats who know her. The same poll found that a majority of Americans disapproved of Trump’s Twitter attacks on Omar and three other minority congresswomen in which he said that they should “go back” to the countries from which they came (despite all but Omar having been born in the United States).
But it seems that instances like this, in which Omar refers to Somalia as “my country” are going to make President Trump’s tweet seem less and less without basis.
LISTEN CLOSELY to @IlhanMN freudian slip here when she got back to MSP last night.
So does she identify as an American or a Somalian?
What say you? Plz share your Point of View pic.twitter.com/qhDVsnSQiT
— Chris Berg (@chrisbergpov) July 19, 2019
Ilhan Omar addressing the Revolution Somali Youth League in 2015:
“You guys have the ability to impact where our nation is headed….”
— Rep. Steven Smith (R-GA) 🇺🇸 (@RepStevenSmith) July 17, 2019
Politico also touts
Following Trump’s invectives, and his singling her out at a campaign rally days later, Omar was greeted by a crowd of more than 100 people at her hometown airport last week.
They could have rounded up more that 100 people by just handing out free coffee.
This ambiguity in her national allegiance along with the original reporting done by the guys at PowerlineBlog, reporting that was shamelessly ripped off without attribution by an alleged conservative outlet, on Omar’s marriage to her brother are going to receive a lot more attention this election cycle than they would in the past because Trump is focused on Minnesota and his tweets can’t be ignored.