Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill’s reelection campaign seems to be beginning to reek of flopsweat. The current RCP average gives Republican challenger Josh Hawley a razor-thin 0.4 percentage point edge.
From RCP https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html
To me, the take away in this is looking at the apples vs. apples comparison of the Missouri Scout polls data points — there is a shift towards Hawley. McCaskill’s approval rating is sucking swamp water. It is currently 37% approve/48% disapprove, this reflects a seven-point drop since June. By contrast, Donald Trump’s approval/disapproval is +5, giving him a 16 point advantage over her.
Today, video of McCaskill talking to supporters in a private gathering leaked out.
The Claire McCaskill behind closed doors is MUCH different than the so-called "moderate" she claims to be.
In a video, she talked to supporters about how the country needs saving from President Trump.
— Missouri GOP (@MissouriGOP) October 4, 2018
McCaskill: How many of you have heard me talk about the Trump Swear Jar?
Mob: Yeah. Okay.
McCaskill: A few of you have so I want to make sure everyone knows what the Trump Swear Jar are. When I used to go to ** on Sunday or when I used to go to the mall with my grandchildren, they would come up to me, people would come up to me and go “Hi, Senator, you do a great job, thank you very much.” And it would be so nice and people would just say, “Hey, Claire, hey, good to see you.” Now people come up to me and go “Save us!”
McCaskill: There’s this unbelievable urgency.
McCaskill: And I realized that this is what people are talking about constantly. How many times in your lives, the last six months, have your friends, family, business associates, church members come up to you and said, “Can you believe this about the porn star?” Or “Can you believe this about him saluting a general in North Korea.”
McCaskill: I mean every day it is something else, right? Well, it reminded of back when I was an assistant prosecutor in Kansas City, a long time ago, I was the only woman in the office. And I thought the only way I had to fit in was to cuss. So I just cussed up a blue streak. I thought, “If I’m cussing like the guys they won’t notice I’m a woman.” So finally, one of the older lawyers came to me and said, “You got to stop the cussing. This is really tacky. It doesn’t look good on you.” And he put a jar on my desk and every time he heard me cuss I had to put a dollar in. So…
McCaskill: From here on out, between now and November, all of you, anytime somebody complains to you about Donald Trump…
McCaskill: Anytime anybody says “Can you believe this is happening?” Go “Oops, five dollars in the Trump Swear Jar. And it’s located at Claire McCaskill’s office.”
Slamming Trump when the guy is a lot more popular than you are isn’t a great strategy. But there was more in the video that the Hawley campaign has turned into an ad.
This is basically a red star cluster fired to announce that McCaskill is writing off the state outside St. Louis and Kansas City.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 11, 2018
Of the Red State Democrats, one would have to say that McCaskill is the most vulnerable after North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp. Overall, one has to feel pretty good about Hawley’s chances of knocking off this Democrat apparatchik and giving Missouri a real senator.
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