Over the weekend, corpulent psychopath and North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un made an unexpected overture to South Korea. He wished South Korea success on hosting the upcoming Winter Olympics. This has led to a series of trial balloons about a North Korean delegation visiting the Olympics, North Korean participation, etc., etc. Keep in mind one thing. These offers are only significant if they are made without preconditions. Historically, North Korea has demanded concessions for its brief masquerades as civilized. It is widely expected that Kim Jong Un will demand a cancellation of major combined maneuvers–Key Resolve and Foal Eagle–scheduled to begin shortly after the Olympics end. It is hard to imagine there will not be a demand for some easing of sanctions. Reuters has the perfect encapsulation of what is happening:

After a year of threats and weapons advances, North Korea’s leader appears to be using the upcoming Winter Olympic Games in South Korea as a tool to blunt growing international pressure on his regime while leaving his nuclear arsenal untouched.

South Korea’s President Moon has responded with a counter-offer. He’s asking for a high-level meeting to discuss other issues.

Right now South Korea is taking a wait-and-see attitude:

Meanwhile, SK's Prime Minister Lee Nak-hyon is cautious: "NK is the most dangerous regime in the world. It could make other demands. Why, because it has nukes. NK participation in PyeongChang doesn't mean that the security situation we face has changed." https://t.co/z5RUZnHBdR

— Noon in Korea (@NoonInKorea) January 2, 2018

Lee thinks "it will be a challenging summit but we should use our imagination & wisdom & use this opportunity." Most SK analysts think Lee means NK could ask for large-scale economic assistance, reduction of US-SK military exercises or acknowledgement of NK being a nuclear state

— Noon in Korea (@NoonInKorea) January 2, 2018

As some experts have pointed out, this is a tried-and-true pattern of behavior by North Korea:

SK's Asan analyst reminds everyone of the pattern that repeats after the excitement created from being dialogue-starved for so long: "NK typically offers a peace initiative after brinkmanship. But this is usually followed by unanticipated provocations." https://t.co/2ewFndh8KW

— Noon in Korea (@NoonInKorea) January 2, 2018

Recurring Pattern: Brinkmanship ⇒ Peace Initiative ⇒ Unexpected Provocation

The satellite launch NK's been preparing for could be provocation. NK may test & see if SK will interpret it as such after the peace initiative. If not, provocation will probably come after PyeongChang

— Noon in Korea (@NoonInKorea) January 2, 2018

And there have been signals that North Korea is prepping another missile launch and possibly another nuclear test.

The only downside in this whole exercise is if South Korea, at some point, decides that a symbolic rapprochement with North Korea offers more benefits than a US alliance. And, make no mistake about it, South Korea caving to any of the North’s preconditions would be a major win for Kim. Likewise, North Korean participation in the Olympics without preconditions would be a major diplomatic coup for South Korea and its allies as it would be the first time this has happened.

While not worded diplomatically, Trump’s assessment is spot on.

Sanctions and “other” pressures are beginning to have a big impact on North Korea. Soldiers are dangerously fleeing to South Korea. Rocket man now wants to talk to South Korea for first time. Perhaps that is good news, perhaps not – we will see!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2018

This may be significant. It probably won’t. All we can do is wait and see…and we really can’t afford to wait all that much longer.