Georgia Special Election Is Not Going the Way the Democrats Had Hoped

Next Tuesday Georgians in the 6th Congressional District are going to the polls to elect a replacement for Tom Price, who is now HHS secretary. The Democrats are pouring large amounts of money into the race in hopes of pulling an upset. But things aren’t looking great. This is sort of a metaphor:


Chelsea Handler, when between bouts of delirium tremens, has been raising cash for the Democrat favorite, Jon Ossoff. But she gets the date of this super important election wrong by a week. Ossoff is a fraud on many levels. He’s claimed to be a small business owner (not). He’s claimed to have held high security clearances (not). So he’s the perfect candidate for today’s Democrat party.

The rules in the GA-6 election are rather strange and would seem more at home in Louisiana than in any other state. This from Larry Sabato’s newsletter:

The format for this election is different than most other races: It is an all-party primary where there will be a runoff unless one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote. That means all of the candidates regardless of party run together in the same election. This is not how almost all House elections will be decided next year: With the exceptions of California, Louisiana, and Washington, all of which use some form of “jungle primaries” in their elections, other states will use a traditional primary and general election format next year. That includes all of the House races in Georgia — the jungle primary being used for this race is just used for special elections. And even in California and Washington, there still is a general election between the top two finishers even if one candidate exceeds 50% in the primary. So this electoral format won’t be replicated anywhere outside of Louisiana in November 2018.

There are a whopping 18 candidates in this election, and 11 of them are Republicans. That includes several strong GOP contenders, such as former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, former Johns Creek City Councilman Bob Gray, and former state Sens. Judson Hill and Dan Moody, among others. Meanwhile, there is only one viable Democrat, former congressional staffer Jon Ossoff. Polling indicates that Ossoff is effectively guaranteed at least a spot in the runoff, and he has an outside chance to win outright — a possibility that this unusual election format allows him. The Republican field, meanwhile, is bunched with a number of contenders in high single or low double digits. So Ossoff can stay above the fray while the Republicans fight among themselves. Republican outside groups seeking to prevent Ossoff from winning before the runoff have spent millions on attack ads against Ossoff, some of which ask voters to only blandly “vote Republican” on Tuesday because, for the most part, these groups are not endorsing a specific candidate.


New polling is out and, if accurate, Ossoff is going to get beaten like a rented mule:

Polls are just polls and turnout is king in these special elections but Ossoff is polling way behind where he needs to be in a two-person race in a district where Price took 62% of the vote.


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