I posted a little while ago on the panic that is setting in among Democrats as they see states they once considered safe, like Virginia and Colorado where they were so confident that they pulled all their advertising money, slipping away. Now it seems that the picture might be a lot more grim than we’d ever imagined possible.
The first clue was buried in the nasty, petulant speech that Barack Obama gave to the Congressional Black Caucus (motto: if the only tool you have is a race-baiting then the problem is racism). One of the things that he said just jumps out at you:
I will consider it a personal insult, an insult to my legacy, if this community lets down its guard and fails to activate itself in this election. You want to give me a good sendoff? Go vote.
Of course, he doesn’t mean vote, per se. He means vote Democrat.
Via the New York Post:
Donald Trump is gaining support among African-American voters — whose enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is eroding, a tracking poll released Saturday revealed.
Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday.
Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent.
Clinton’s nearly 20-point crash began Sunday, said Dan Schnur of USC. Sunday was the day Clinton was recorded collapsing while entering a Secret Service van at a 9/11 event.
Let’s put that in perspective. In 2012, Democrats took 95% of the black vote. In 2008, 99%. In 2004, 93%. In 2000, 95%. This is a tsunami. If Donald Trump is actually polling 19% of the black vote there is no way Hillary Clinton can win. It cannot be done. No Democrat can win without taking over 90% of the black vote.
The same thing may be happening with Hispanic voters. This from the Washington Post:
Lagging support among Hispanic voters for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and congressional candidates in crucial races has stoked deep concern that the party and the presidential campaign are doing too little to galvanize a key constituency.
While Clinton holds a significant lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in every poll of Hispanic voters, less clear is whether these voters will turn out in numbers that Democrats are counting on to win. Clinton trails President Obama’s 2012 performance in several Latino-rich states, including Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. In those same states, on which Democrats’ prospects of retaking the Senate hinge, some down-ballot Democrats remain unknown to many Hispanic voters.
Marco Rubio, for instance, leads the ethically challenged Patrick Murphy by six points among Hispanics. You have to visualize Biblical levels of ticket splitting to see Rubio winning the Senate seat — and the Democrats have pretty much abandoned Murphy — and Hillary Clinton winning the race at the top of the ballot.
I will be the first to admit that just about a everything in this election year has been a surprise to me and to my colleagues here at RedState. But now we are barely 45 days from Election Day and certain things are starting to gel that will take nothing short of a low-yield thermonuclear device to move them. The slow bleed of support for Hillary Clinton in states that she should have locked up is one. The only questions there are will the seepage turn into a torrrent and will it happen fast enough to put the state in Trump’s column. The flight of black, and presumably Hispanic, voters is another. If she’s devoted the necessary energy to have nearly one-fifth of black voters say they will vote for Trump, that is not going to change enough to save her.