New CNN Poll: Trump 49%. Really? Does Anyone Believe That?

United States presidential election, 2016

Stunning new poll out from CNN/ORC:

On the Republican side, the new survey finds Trump’s lead is dominant, and his support tops that of his four remaining opponents combined. The businessman tops his nearest competitor by more than 30 points: 49% back Trump, 16% Marco Rubio, 15% Ted Cruz, 10% Ben Carson and 6% John Kasich.

Trump’s supporters are incredibly enthusiastic about the coming election, and largely committed in their support for him. Nearly 8 in 10 say that they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections, among Republicans who are not supporting Trump, just 39% say they are more enthusiastic than in years past. Likewise, 78% of Trump’s backers say they will definitely support him vs. 22% who say they could still change their minds. Among those backing other candidates, 57% say they are committed to their chosen candidate.


This is the trend line:

Color me somewhat skeptical. We have a raft of state polls out for Super Tuesday and the primaries that follow closely after that. In exactly none of them does Trump hit 49%. If Trump is not at 49% in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California he is demonstrably not at 49% nation-wide. Having said that, this is very much in line with other recent polls, state and national, that show Trump breaking through the 40% mark. If Super Tuesday and the Florida/Ohio event on March 15 unfold the way the polls look, a poll with Trump above 50% is highly likely by the end of the month.


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