August is just about to make its 2026 debut, and its arrival will mean that there are three full months for nominees in battleground races to make their best pitches to voters in their districts and states before midterm Election Day.
Though we've seen a lot of movement and noise in key Senate races in states like Michigan and Maine over the last several weeks, the North Carolina Senate race featuring former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley has been running at a pace that so far has been favorable to Cooper.
Sen. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) handpicked candidate has consistently led all polling matchups since they started cranking out polls for this race, with double-digit leads as high as 11 (outside of one outlier poll from January that had him at +24), and with Whatley hitting striking distance in some of the polls, including a recent one from leftist polling outfit Public Policy Polling that showed him trailing only by four.
But the most recent poll, from Fox News, has Cooper up by nine (53 percent to 44 percent), and I don't think it's a coincidence that around the same time that poll came out, we're learning that the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) is about to hit the gas in this race as part of a sustained effort to dent Cooper's armor:
The Senate’s top GOP super PAC is launching a $17 million summer ad campaign in North Carolina — its largest reservation anywhere in the country so far this cycle, underscoring the state’s importance to Republicans’ hopes of defending their Senate majority.
The investment, shared first with POLITICO, is the first tranche of Senate Leadership Fund’s previously announced plan to spend $71 million in North Carolina this year.
[...]
The SLF ad buy signals the beginning of more national resources to come. A person familiar with SLF’s plans in North Carolina, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the investment reflects the party’s growing confidence that a sustained advertising blitz will expose vulnerabilities in Cooper’s record.
Cooper, 69, has some big advantages, the most powerful of which is name recognition. He's been a fixture in state government since the late 1980s, serving first in the state house, then the senate, then as attorney general, and then as governor. He's held elected office for over half his life.
Even when NC finally elected a Republican governor (Pat McCrory) in 2012, Cooper was still winning his attorney general races. And a campaign of demagoguing over the "bathroom bill" and strongarming Democrats in the General Assembly who threatened to defy him led to him making McCrory a one-term governor.
Whatley's main strategy against Cooper so far has been to pound his record on crime and to point out that Cooper is only selectively touring the state to counties he thinks he "needs" to win while neglecting others. But the lack of name recognition in comparison to Cooper is a big obstacle for Whatley, and along with that, the legacy media in North Carolina is all in for Cooper as they have been historically, and that's only going to get more pronounced the closer we get to Election Day.
Further, the sentiment expressed in some conservative circles has been a concern that Whatley won't be sufficiently loyal to President Trump.
I don't think that will be the case, but I also use this Donald Rumsfeld quote as a driving force in races where that perception exists: "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." Cooper would be a reliable vote against Trump's MAGA agenda every single time, and most assuredly would vote to convict in an impeachment trial.
Hopefully, the infusion of cash by the SLF will breathe much-needed new life into this race at a critical time. Plus, I wonder what about Cooper the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is sitting on to put out there at the right time. The last three months are the ones that stick with voters the most, and if history is any indicator, this one will tighten up in mid-September, just like the Tillis races against Kay Hagan and Cal Cunningham did, where he was behind in the polls but went on to win.
This race isn't over by a long shot. In fact, it has only really just begun.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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