A Doggedly Determined Dave McCormick Closes Gap in Senate Race Against Bob Casey

Though it hasn't gotten as much attention as some other high-profile Senate battles across the United States, the race between Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee Dave McCormick and Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is still going strong and heating up, with the first debate scheduled for Thursday at 8 pm ET.

Between powerful ads and stops all across the state where he makes sure to tie Casey to the extreme policies of Vice President Kamala Harris, McCormick, a West Point grad and veteran of the first Gulf War, has sought to portray his opponent as wildly out of touch with Keystone State voters on issues like the border crisis, abortion, energy independence, and so-called transgender rights. One way he's done this is by pointing out Casey's actions and votes on those issues over his campaign rhetoric.

While polls have shown Casey ahead throughout the race, McCormick has been close enough in most of them to give Casey nightmares and worries about an "onslaught" of attack ads with a month to go before Election Day.

As it turns out, McCormick's persistence has paid off, as the last five polls released in September show that he has significantly narrowed what had been at its widest point (in one July poll) a 13-point gap, now pulling to within one to three points in the most recent polls, which is within the margin of error:

After being down by as much as 13 points in polling, Dave McCormick has closed the gap with Bob Casey in the most recent polls. Their first debate is tonight. https://t.co/oTW1GWbP12 #PAsen pic.twitter.com/DF8OHp7NmF
— Sister Toldjah 💙 (@sistertoldjah) October 3, 2024

🚨🚨🚨

Great poll showing the Pennsylvania Senate race statistically tied.

Great momentum coming at the right time. https://t.co/TlsD71abVk
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 3, 2024

As far as control of the Senate goes, West Virginia is viewed as an almost certain pick-up for the GOP with Gov. Jim Justice being firmly ahead by 30 points or higher in all available polling. Another strong contender for a GOP pick-up is Tim Sheehy in Montana, who is surging ahead of Sen. Jon Tester and with numbers that are likely to get even better after Sheehy's strong debate performance Monday.

Barring any surprises in Texas or Florida, where Democrats reportedly are trying to make inroads in desperate hope for an upset or two, assuming Justice and Sheehy are victorious, Republicans will control the Senate regardless of whether the Trump-Vance presidential ticket wins in November.

Needless to say, having McCormick win (and Bernie Moreno in Ohio) as well sure would be a nice cushion and feather in the GOP's cap going into 2025.

If you'd like to watch McCormick/Casey debate each other, here's how:

Tomorrow, I’m debating Bob Casey! 🎙️

Here’s how you can catch all the action: pic.twitter.com/6QehYbP6FM
— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) October 3, 2024