Not much.

It’s possibly huge.

And that’s really how things should be.

This isn’t meant as a comprehensive rundown of all the various hypothetical permutations that might exist taking into consideration the facts we know, and conclusions we think we can draw from that limited universe of facts.

Instead, this article is just some observations about the potential significance of some of the issues that are being reported in the media with various levels of certainty — and in some cases, a criticism of some clearly unknown issues that idiot commentators are positing as facts when they have no real understanding of the subject at hand.

So, in consideration of my views on such unjustified speculation let me add a couple of my own — but I’ll label them as just that, uninformed speculation.

Hunter Biden has been the subject of an FBI counterintelligence investigation — likely for a substantial length of time — and that might include a FISA warrant for the reasons suggested below.

Joe Biden is so hopelessly compromised that if he happens to win the election on Tuesday, when he’s confronted with what the intelligence community knows about his overseas entanglements, he’ll be forced to decline to take the oath of office.  He’ll step aside in favor of Kamala Harris, and the Democrat party will have their first female minority President — which has always been the goal — and not a septuagenarian recycled white male politician with a room temperature IQ and a troubling history of overt racism.  The “support” that Joe Biden thinks he has in the party will suddenly evaporate and he’ll be standing alone in an empty room he thought was full of supporters — courtesy of Barack Obama.

Hunter Biden has long been involved with crooks and fraudsters, beginning with his involvement with Devon Archer through Rosemont Seneca Partners.  Archer has been chasing lucrative foreign business deals ever since he was the national finance chair for the John Kerry Presidential campaign where he emerged as a “baby bundler” in Democrat party circles.  He joined forces with Hunter Biden — lacking in any ethical scruples himself — to nakedly pursue financial opportunities based on their close proximity to influential politicians in the Democrat Party.

By 2013, Rosemont Seneca was in business with the Bank of China and other CCP owned Chinese enterprises.  It is also true that the Obama Administration welcomed these trans-national business partnerships and willingly gave its approval to joint business deals between firms like Rosemont Senaca and CCP controlled businesses.

But in late 2015, Archer was the target of a criminal investigation of securities fraud involving an Indian bond scheme he had participated in with some of his nefarious business partners — a few of whom were also involved in his and Hunter’s business dealings with China.

In May 2016, Archer was indicted in the Southern District of New York for securities fraud.  I am 100% certain that as part of that investigation — in which his primary partner-in-crime Jason Galanis cooperated — the FBI had all the email and text message communications between Archer and the other defendants.  This would have included emails and text messages sent to/from Hunter Biden, or mentioning Hunter Biden, and concerning Chinese business deals.

US intelligence agencies — the CIA and FBI — watch those relationships closely for signs of malign intentions by the CCP partner(s) in the transactions — such as a desire to obtain dual-use technologies through their US business partners. The Chinese have nothing but malign intentions.

Six months after Archer was indicted, Donald Trump won the election and everything changed in Hunter Biden’s world.  Now his father was the ex-Vice President, a new political party would dictate US-Chinese policy, and Biden’s contacts in the Democrat party establishment were significantly less valuable.  But not valueless.

CEFC was set to be Hunter Biden’s business partner in 2017 — but the planning for that arrangement, according to Tony Bobulinksy, actually started in 2016 during a period of time when Hunter’s communications were likely being scrutinized by the FBI in connection with the case in which Archer was indicted. The cost to the CCP of the original deal was minimal — $10 million the first year — and what they gained was a “relationship” that compromised Hunter Biden and, by extension, Joe Biden, who they believed to be part of the transaction.  Remember Bobulinski’s claim — the Chinese always looked at the arrangement as a partnership with the Biden family, so much so that they agreed to loan the Biden family the $5 million capital contribution for their 1/2 interest that the Bidens couldn’t afford to pay.

CEFC was no ordinary “privately-owned” energy company in China — that’s like finding a unicorn.  Andy McCarthy has a terrific breakdown yesterday of just what CEFC was, and the implications that SHOULD be drawn from the entanglement of Hunter Biden, Jim Biden, and Joe Biden in business dealings with CEFC in 2017.

CEFC’s Chairman until January 2018 was Ye Zian Ming.  Nobody becomes “one of the richest men in the world” by heading up a supposedly “private” Chinese energy company.  CEFC was always a company that was acting in the interest of the CCP and Chinese military.

At the same time, the CEFC’s Chairman Ye was PERSONALLY meeting with and negotiating a $10 million “business deal” with Hunter Biden in Miami (July-August 2017), CEFC was also acquiring a 14% ownership stake in the Russian state-owned energy company Rosneft, valued at $9 billion.

What’s wrong with that picture?

Understand the fundamental details of the Rosneft transaction.  CEFC was acquiring a 14% interest in Rosneft that had been sold by the Russian government to a holding company owned by Switzerland’s mining conglomerate Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority.  They had acquired the interest just ten months earlier in December 2016.  As was widely speculated at the time, the “sale” to Glencore and Qatar was really just a $10 billion loan to the Russian government being choked by economic sanctions, with the loan being secured by the Rosneft interest.  When the Russians were unable to pay back the loan, the Chinese stepped in on behalf of the distressed “debtor” — Russia — and agreed to pay off Glencore and Qatar, with a “private” Chinese company taking ownership of 14% of Rosneft and all its holdings in Russia.

That’s the level that Ye was operating — not cutting $10 million deals with the drug-addled son of a former US Vice President in a poolside cabana at the Fountainbleau Hotel in South Beach sharing a pitcher of Mojitos and a platter of tostones.

CEFC always was a CCP and Chinese Military controlled enterprise.  It was a fundamental part of China’s “One Belt, One Road Initiative”, through which China has used “debt diplomacy” to establish Chinese interests and facilities in critical infrastructure locations throughout the world. The basics of the initiative are that China offers to finance and build commercial and industrial infrastructure projects in third world countries throughout Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Pacific.  But it does so on financing terms that the third world countries are unlikely to be able to meet.  The scheme is executed simply by bribing third world government officials to approve the projects and take on the debt financing the country will never be able to afford.  The end-game for the Chinese is simply to “foreclose” in a manner of speaking, take over ownership and control of the facilities they have built, and make use of them in ways that advance Chinese influence around the world.

A key official in CEFC, Chi Ping Patrick Ho, was arrested and indicted in New York in November 2017 for bribing government officials of two African countries to secure business in those countries for CEFC.  Ho had been an official in the Hong Kong government in the early 2000s. Later, from his position as head of the CEFC-backed non-government organization, the China Energy Fund Committee (“CEFC-NGO”), Ho was able to pursue CEFC’s standard operating procedure of bribing foreign government officials to approve CEFC business deals in their country, i.e., the “One Belt, One Road Initiative”.

At Ho’s criminal trial in the Southern District of New York, prosecutors gave notice to the Defense of their intention to admit evidence acquired under FISA:

The United States, through its attorney Geoffrey S. Berman, United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, hereby provides notice to defendant Chi Ping Patrick Ho,a/k/a Patrick C. P. Ho,” a/k/a “He Zhiping,” and to the Court, that pursuant to Title 50, United States Code, Sections 1806(c) and 1825(d), the United States intends to offer into evidence, or otherwise use or disclose in any proceedings in the above-captioned matter, information obtained or derived from electronic surveillance and physical search conducted pursuant to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 (FISA), as amended, 50 U.S.C. §§ 1801-1812 and 1821-1829.

Not only had Hunter Biden engaged with Patrick Ho prior to his arrest about the business arrangement between CEFC and the Biden family, but the first person Ho called after being arrested was also Jim Biden looking to get in contact with Hunter.  Among the documents found on Hunter Biden’s laptop is an “Attorney Engagement Letter” between Hunter Biden and Ho:

That’s $1 million in exchange for “Counsel to matters related to US law and advice to pertain to the hiring and legal analysis of any US Law Firm or Lawyer.”

Nice work if you can get it.

SOMEONE — or more likely a few “someones” — were subject to FBI counterintelligence surveillance under FISA related to CEFC activity, i.e., CCP and Chinese military activity.

The purpose of FISA surveillance is to gather information about the actions and motives of hostile foreign actors, and use that information to “counter” those efforts.  It is not intended to gather evidence for use in a later criminal proceeding. The window into such activity is often obtained through US persons who the foreign actor is working through or with to pursue the foreign actor’s goals.  It is perfectly normal — in fact, it is expected — than any such investigation and/or surveillance of Hunter Biden would never be made public.  It is exceptionally rare when it ever does.

But in the criminal prosecution of Patrick Ho, the Justice Department made the determination that, in order to improve the chances of getting a conviction, they needed evidence obtained pursuant to the FISA warrant, and were therefore required to provide notice of their intention to use such evidence in the government’s case-in-chief.

The Notice given to the defense in the Ho criminal case was filed as a public document on Feb. 8, 2018.  If they weren’t already suspicious, the Notice confirmed for the CCP and Chinese Military that everything connected to CEFC had likely been compromised by US law enforcement and the intelligence community.

On February 27, 2018, a Chinese financial news site, Caixin, reported in a lengthy article that Chairman Ye had been arrested and was being detained by the Chinese Military.  A CEFC spokesperson said the company would not comment on whether Mr. Ye was detained or not. Word that the company was under investigation had been circulating in the energy industry for about a week. Ye has not been seen publicly since that time.

Earlier this year — less than three years after taking control of 14% of Rosneft, CEFC went bankrupt in China.  The CCP giveth, the CCP taketh away.

Combining two significant facts — that the FBI was monitoring CEFC activity with a FISA warrant on Ho and/or others connected to CEFC, and that the son of a former US Vice President was actively engaged with the very top officials in CEFC to enter into business partnerships, combine to lay a solid foundation to suspect that Hunter Biden was being actively surveilled by US counterintelligence in 2017.

The CCP and the Chinese military realized the problem after Ho’s arrest.  Once the existence of the FISA warrant was confirmed, the Chinese moved in to tie up “loose ends”.

Next — how this scenario was impacted by the discovery and public disclosure of Hunter Biden’s laptop.