For the last several weeks we have heard a lot about Dominion voting systems. For some, Dominion is like the big-bad data company from Robin Williams’ 2006 film ‘Man of The Year,’ where Williams’ talk-show host character mistakenly wins the Presidency as a result of a glitch in the voting software system. Some are arguing that Dominion’s alleged problems are less of a glitch and more of a feature, where nefarious activities in numerous states where, again allegedly, Dominion switched votes from Trump to Biden.
The problem with that is, again, the data doesn’t support that narrative. To believe that is occurring, you’d have to say that Dominion only did this alleged vote switch in only certain counties, not everywhere the voting machines were used. In digging into the data in my ‘Excuse Me While I Call BS’ series at RedState, I found the discrepancies to be isolated to white suburban counties in 5 or 6 swing states. If the software was indeed the problem, it would have likely been everywhere. Certainly, it remains *possible* that a software glitch could have had this isolated effect, I only use the word of possible in the sense that it is just on this side of impossible. It is not only unlikely, but it would also have required the single-greatest, largest, most coordinated, most air-tight conspiracy ever perpetrated on the American people.
This isn’t to say that fraud, fraudulent activities, or other nefarious acts were not conducted to secure the result that came. Let’s be clear: Joe Biden did not do well as universally as Trump did. Anyone else that says so, is either incompetent or a fool. There’s really no middle ground. In every swing state that I analyzed, I could count the counties in which Trump underperformed either 2012 or 2016 Republican performance on two hands. On the other hand, Biden underperformed in the vast majority of counties. This media-driven narrative that says that Biden’s win was a national mandate flat-out ignores the statistical data.
If the Biden win was indeed on the up-and-up (and I don’t believe it was), you’d have to say that racist-and-sexist-white-liberals didn’t show up to vote for Obama or Clinton, but decided that 2020 was the year to show up to defeat Trump. Even if you give them a 10 or 15 point advantage in that segment, Trump would still have won the Presidency. We aren’t just talking about that huge-yet-statistically-possible jump. We are talking about 40-point jumps over Obama’s 2012 performance, well above any statistically likely outcome.
In Forsyth County, Georgia, Biden overperformed Obama’s 2012 performance by 189.64% or 27,632 votes. Granted the county has seen a 60% registered voter increase since 2012, but Biden’s performance in that county, with a total registered population of approximately 172,000, singularly delivered Georgia to Biden.
I believe that 2020’s results would be flipped under either of two circumstances: First is that mail ballots were required to be requested, and not automatically sent out, as they were in many counties and states across the country, and the second, that those mail ballots were rejected at the same rate at which they were rejected in previous elections.
In many states and counties, as they fought to allow for “safe voting practices” (even though there was no talk about “safe protesting practices”) they instituted policies to send mail ballots to all voters as they did in California. This created millions of first-time absentee voters, which likely would have sent the rejection rate through the roof… Except it didn’t. Instead, in states like Georgia, the mail-ballot rejection rate in 2016 was 6.5%. This year? Just .2%. Had Georgia rejected mail-ballots just at HALF the rate (3.25%), Trump would have won Georgia. Those same rejection rate reductions occur in PA, MI, WI, and Nevada. Had those rejection rates been just half their 2016 number, Trump would have won WI, GA, and Nevada putting it on the Trump legal team to flip just PA, MI, or AZ for the win.
Ultimately, absent the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump would have been reelected in a landslide. Dems used the pandemic as a means of switching millions of voters to absentee voters for, at the minimum, the 2020 election. In many states, the applications for mail-voting that was sent to all eligible voters in pandemic-fighting policy were permanent. That means that in every subsequent election, these voters will be sent ballots. In other states, a single year of mail-voting will automatically switch you to a mail voter for years to come. As these voters move or die, the potential of fraud increases exponentially.
I will say that I don’t believe that Democrats will match 2020’s turnout for another 20 years. Absent some other effort to move to mail-ballots in later elections, they will never turn out some of these voters again. Again, this wasn’t some mandate we saw duplicated across the country. It occurred in a couple dozen primarily blue suburban counties in 5 states. These same results disappeared over a few miles. Absent the push to mail voting, Trump would have won.
Dominion is a distraction. Mail-ballots is where we need to focus our efforts. First and foremost: Any state or county that switched to mail voting by executive action absent the Constitutionally-required legislative action to allow for it, should have those additional ballots thrown out, full stop.