I have been monitoring elections since 1996. Sure, I was only 13 when I started, but elections and politics have been a passion of mine since 8th grade, when my Social Sciences teacher, Mr. Kohlmeier, planted the seeds of individual thought and analysis in my fertile head. Never did he voice an ideology or push us to a conclusion. He demanded logic and reason, but beyond that, it was open season in his classroom. I have carried those lessons throughout my life in my attempts to debate, always attempting to stick to facts and logic, much to the chagrin of people on both the left and the right.
Among the reasons I began writing at RedState was to be able to monitor data and analyze the meaning of polling data, registration data, and voter returns once those numbers began trickling in. I said Trump would outperform his 2016 numbers in Florida, not because I felt that way or because my ideology stated I had to say so, but rather because voter registration and polling data said it was going to happen. You can’t add 150k more voters in a state than the Democrats, pick up huge swings of minority voters and lose. Mathematically, it doesn’t add up.
Which is going to lead me to doing something I have been doing way too often lately: Calling BS. In every bit of math coming out of these states. In all of the polling data (*when adjusted), it told us Trump was going to win by larger margins among minority voters. The numbers literally don’t lie. In North Carolina, Democrats lost 161,000 voters since 2016 while Republicans gained 72,000 voters. You want us to believe that Republicans, who have registered as such since the Trump era, walked into the voting booth on Election day and pulled the trigger for Biden? In that state, Trump currently leads by 77,000 votes, in a state Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, and that Republicans picked up a 230k voter margin since? I call BS.
In Pennsylvania, Trump has won every county he won in 2016 except for one, while he picked up another county that Clinton won in 2016. Enthusiasm levels for Biden were lower than they were for Clinton in PA. Since 2016, in the state where Trump won by 45,000 votes, Democrats have lost 48,000 voters while Republicans have added 150,000 voters, outperformed amongst minorities and had record party support and Democrat cross-over vote and yet, Trump only leads by 110,000 voters? BS.
In Wisconsin, they have lost voters since 2016, to the tune of 145,000 voters. In just three counties, Milwaukee, Eau Claire, and Dane, they lost 63,000 of those. All of those counties went to Clinton by large margins since 2016. That is just considering counties as Wisconsin does not register by party. Overall, Counties won by Clinton lost 97,000 voters since 2016, while Trump counties lost just 47,000 voters, or less than half. Additionally, turnout in 2016, as a percentage of registered voters, was just 79.80%. This year, the state jumped to a statistically impossible 92.26%, a 12.46% increase over their 2016 numbers. In a state when Democrats statistically lost more voters than Republicans, we are supposed to believe that a 12% increase (largest ever) swung majority to Dems, by a factor that not only overcame the margin by which Trump won the state in 2016 but also erased any gains Republicans had in registration (by losing less) and gave Biden a 20,000 vote lead? Again, BS.
In Michigan, the trend continues. Counties that Trump won in 2016, added more voters than did counties that Clinton won. Trump won the state by 11,000 votes, Biden allegedly has now carried the state by more than 148,000 voters, a 159,000 vote swing, in a state, that Democrats statistically registered less voters since 2016. Additionally, there was a record turnout this year, jumping from 64% to 71%. To compare, the next highest was 2008, at 67%. Again, total BS.
Two states that should have been closer are Iowa and Arizona. Both had higher Dem registrations. Trump won Iowa by a higher % and vote than he had in 2016. Arizona, a state that Trump won by 3.5 and Republicans still lead in registration suddenly goes to Biden by 2 points? (Yes I know there’s only 86% and Yes I know what the Trump campaign has said about it). A 5+ point swing? Nope. Serial BS.
The point is this: One or two statistically impossible outcomes is theoretical. In this election, Democrats with a sub 40% enthusiasm level for their candidate, were able to erase gains in states Trump won, erase registration advantages, turnout record voters, and beat their 2016 turnouts by 20 and 30%? It doesn’t add up. I get people being mad at Trump. Give Dems a 3 or 4 point uptick in their 2016 numbers. 10 and 12 points? Nope. I call BS.