In 2016 I had never heard of the Democracy Institute (DI) or their polling. On the morning of Election Day 2016, this obscure polling firm issued a shocking poll: Trump will win the US Elections. To be fair, they only got it half right. DI suggested that Trump was going to not only win the election (he did) but also win the popular vote (he did not). DI also accurately predicted the outcome of the Brexit vote in the UK just a few months before the 2016 US Elections. Considering that most other firms who still “got it right” were outside of their margins of error, DI proved to be accurate, though that is in no way an endorsement of their polls or methodology. The simple fact is, they have a record of accuracy.
Now, out of the UK comes a new poll, showing Trump not only winning the election but leading nationally over Biden. A DI poll from earlier in October showed Trump with a slight lead over Biden but this poll gives two stats that I find particularly interesting, and if true, should deliver Trump the election.
This particular poll found that Trump not only leads nationally but that Trump will likely win the majority of the swing states with leads in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. A few factors that support this are the leads that Trump currently has in early returns in Wisconsin and Michigan and that Trump is down by single digits in Iowa and Florida, and a big election day turn-out for Trump could easily reverse those Dem leads. Another factor that bodes well for this is for the last several decades, as goes Florida, so does Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Another big data point out of this poll is about the “shy voter.” Democrats want to believe this is a myth. Fortunately, the data doesn’t support that narrative, and this poll is no different. This poll found Trump supporters were less likely to discuss their support by 58 points than Biden supporters. The poll found that 79 to 21, that Trump supporters are afraid of reprisals for their support of Trump. While I question whether or not that number is actually that high, I believe that number is at least half that, which is still a stunning admission.
Either way, the polls are sliding in a way that gives a lot of people hope for the coming election. Trump likely wins at this point, but as I have discussed over at VIP, by less than the margin of his 2016 victory. The challenge for Team Biden at this point is reversing the course of their narrative for the last several months. Democrats’ efforts to push for a huge turnout in early voting seems to have fallen a bit flat, causing Trump to take early leads in certain battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin. They have now shifted to a push to election day voting, but with the rise in COVID cases and the likelihood that resulting fear affects Democrats at a higher rate than Republicans, is obviously greater.