As we enter the last two weeks of Election 2020, we should start to consider the Electoral College Result for the 2020 Election. During the last several weeks, I have stated that Trump is likely going to win a lot of the Swing States that Democrats want to pretend, are in play. From my analysis, this isn’t an uphill battle for Trump to reelection, it is an uphill battle for Democrats and Joe Biden.
Real Clear Politics Current Electoral College Map:
First, let’s identify which states we are referring to. Currently, Real Clear Politics has the Battleground States listed as (moving West to East) Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. RCP also pegs Biden as receiving 216 Electoral Votes and Trump at 125 Electoral Votes.
I immediately take issue with certain states being listed as battleground states. In particular, Texas, Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio, each of these states that Trump won by a sizeable margin and there are no electoral indicators to suggest that Trump wouldn’t win these states again. Trump won Texas by 9 points, Iowa by 10, Georgia by 5.1, and Ohio by 8.1. To suggest these states were about to swing by 5 point margins, they would have to give us a reason for the electoral shift (like Obama drawing out the black vote in 2018.) They provide none beyond media polls, which as can be seen by 2016, were off by a substantial amount in some of those states. In both Iowa and Ohio, the RCP average in 2016 was off by 6.5% and 5.9% respectively. That isn’t just a mathematical or sampling error. That’s flat out, polling malpractice. Let’s slide any state that Trump won by a margin of 5 points or greater, right back into the win column for him. Our electoral count is now 216 to 203 in favor of Biden.
RCP EC Map awarding Trump states he won in 2016 by +5%:
I am also going to slide both Florida and North Carolina into the Trump column. As I have previously written here at RedState, since 2016, Florida Republicans have out-registered Democrats in the state 444,922 to 298,090, a slide to Republicans favor by 146,832 voters in a state that Trump won by just 112,000 votes. To me, that is indicative of a slide for Democrats that is impossible to overcome. North Carolina tells a similar, but a more devastating story for Democrats. Since 2016, North Carolina Democrats have LOST 161,601 voters, while North Carolina Republicans have added 71,947 voters, a 233,548 voter margin that slid in favor of Republicans, in a state Trump won by just 173,000 votes. There’s little chance that Dems are going to win the ideological battle in a state they are losing the registration battle. Updating our 2016 map to reflect the change, we end up with 247 Trump, 216 Biden.
RCP EC Map awarding Trump Florida and North Carolina:
At 247, Trump is just 23 votes from securing a second term, and Biden would have to secure the lion’s share of the remaining states to be able to even remain competitive, let alone win. Of the remaining states, which are Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Trump won all but two in 2016, which means Biden would have to win Nevada and Minnesota again for the Democrats and pick up Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan JUST TO TIE with Trump, 269 to 269, if Trump won the rest. That essentially means that Trump can lose 3 of the remaining battleground states, and still win. Even if Trump loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania, he can still win with just three of the four remaining states. Biden needs to win at least 4 (5 if Nevada is one of them), to win.
For instance, if Trump were to win just Pennsylvania and one other state, he wins the election. If Trump were to win Michigan and Wisconsin, he wins. If he wins Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada, he wins. Trump’s path to an electoral victory is broad and vast.
RCP EC Map awarding Trump Pennsylvania and Nevada:
RCP EC Map awarding Trump Michigan and Wisconsin:
RCP EC Map awarding Trump Michigan and Ohio:
RCP EC Map awarding Trump Arizona and NE and ME singles (need 1 more):
That means that of the remaining states, Biden will have to win at least 4, with Trump needing just two to secure the win. Trump would need to win just Pennsylvania and one other state to win. If he lost Pennsylvania, he would have to win just Michigan and one other state. If he loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania, he still could clinch with 3 of the remaining 4.
The thing is that Trump has several paths to victory while Biden has maybe 2. Biden’s path requires at least three of those states. (Trump only needs 2) Even if Biden wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, he would still need at least two more of the remaining states to win. For instance, Biden could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada and STILL lose.
RCP EC Maps showing Biden’s path includes two ties:
In other state analysis, I have done on RedState, Pennsylvania sees the same gains for Republicans in registration that Florida and North Carolina did. Since 2016, in Pennsylvania, Democrats have lost 48,556 voters while Republicans have gained 150,332 voters, a 198,888 voter swing in Republicans favor. Just in 2020, Republicans have out-registered their Democrat counterparts by a nearly 2 to 1 margin, 205,535 to 109,036.
In Michigan, counties that went for Clinton in 2016 added 81,809 voters since 2016, while Trump Counties have added 152,677 voters, again, a nearly 2 to 1 margin in favor of Republicans. Trump won Michigan by just 11,000 votes. Additionally, In Presidential elections since 2008, EVERY SINGLE COUNTY in Michigan has moved to the right in their voting behavior. In 2016, Clinton failed to flip a single county away from Michigan-native-son Mitt Romney. Not one.
You’ll never convince me that a party losing the voter registration battle is going to win the ideological battle. It will never happen. This battle for a win isn’t for Trump; It is for Biden and the Democrats.