I find it easy to explain last night on a visceral level; filled the joyous reek of utter carnage. We crushed our enemies, saw them driven before us, and heard the lamentations of their women! But there are a few actual thoughts that I’ll delve into below.
Deming’s Funnel and why the polls have not measured up for 2 straight election cycles.
William Edwards Deming was one of the most underrated mathematicians that America ever produced. One of his most famous observations on adjustments due to new data is the Deming’s Funnel Experiment. A funnel is used to catch some falling series of objects. The objects fall from slightly different locations with enough variation so that the funnel misses fairly often if it isn’t in the optimal location. If you move the funnel around every time it misses an object, you tend to miss way more often than if you just picked a good spot and only moved it after you tried to catch ten or so objects.
This projects to polling fairly well because pollsters attempt to estimate what the electorate will look like every time they poll an election race. Back in 2010, a bunch of pollsters assumed a 2006-2008 electorate and were surprised by how well the Tea Party performed. In 2012, pollsters that modeled based on a 2010 electorate succeeded in electing President Romney. Last night, pollsters taking only 2012 into account elected Senators Orman, Hagan, and Begich. It’s a good thing mere mortals still have the right to vote.
If RMJ were in charge of polling Alabama, he would take the data from every county since 1960 and map the trends of electorate size, composition and rate of change. The mean size and composition data would dictate the initial funnel position, the first and second derivatives thereof would be used to move the funnel to the spot where I think most of the metaphorical votes would actually drop. I’m not claiming it’s perfect; but it’s a lot more sciency than, say the Debbie Wasserman-Schultz Algorithm. So the polls don’t use enough historical data to educate their models.
Does The Electoral Hysterectomy of Mark Uterus End The Long And Tragic War On Women?
For now. The issue failed; so the Dems will file it away for future reference. But doesn’t my entire unreconstructed attitude on this make me a patriarchal, cisgendered swine? That should invalidate my outmoded, Neanderthal point of view on this stuff. It probably does, but my point of view doesn’t matter. The feminine prospective matters. The Democrats were relying on the votes of unmarried women to save their Senate majority and pick off a few GOP Governors.
This was flawed for two reasons. In North Carolina, and Georgia, the Dems did well among ladies exercising their suffrage, but suffered from not having enough of them show up. In Texas and Iowa, this strategy backfired to the point where far more women liked the GOP candidate than the Dem modelers were even willing to project.
(Insert FatLady JPEG)
The bottom line here is simple. Contrary to the Gospel of Sandra Fluke, there really is more to distinguish a woman from a man than just a uterus. I had an Ex-Girlfriend tell me once that she was different from the guys because she had an organ known as a brain. The Dems badly underestimated the self-image of most American women during this year’s election campaign. Therefore, the ladies of the GOP made them squeal.
The GOP Has A Mandate To Repeal Obamacare
Let’s talk Latin I. It will perhaps enable us to better communicate with Speaker Boehner and [mc_name name=’Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’M000355′ ] regarding their mandate to repeal Obamacare. CNS News gives us the following information.
[mc_name name=’Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000562′ ], David Perdue, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, [mc_name name=’Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’C001095′ ], [mc_name name=’Rep. James Lankford (R-OK)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’L000575′ ], [mc_name name=’Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’D000618′ ], Mike Rounds, Shelley Moore Capito all ran on a platform of repealing Obamacare
Now we get to the Latin lesson. Mandate comes from the Latin root mandātum, – to commission, literally, to give into (someone’s) hand. To use another Latin word that’s migrated into Standard American English, all of the newly-minted GOP Senators have been tasked with a mission. That mission is to nuke Obamacare.
(Insert Nuke JPEG)
If the GOP doesn’t at least make the Dems filibuster a naked repeal and then veto a reconciliation, then I’m not sure [mc_name name=’Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’M000355′ ] will be leading the US Senate for more than two years. Or to put this another way, if [mc_name name=’Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’M000355′ ] likes his Senate majority, he can keep it.
America’s Time for Choosing Can Be Summed In Just One Picture
The American Digest gives us the most enlightening graphic of the 2014 Midterm Election.