We’re about halfway through Election Day for most of Florida, and the Democrats in Miami-Dade are staring a bloodbath straight in its beady little eyes.
A few days ago, I posted about how things were not looking good for Democrats in early voting; see For the First Time Republicans Swamp Democrats in Florida Early Voting as an Electoral Disaster Looms for the Left. When I posted that Republicans had a 176,000 vote lead in early and vote-by-mail ballots, whereas, at the same point in the 2020 election, where President Trump carried Florida by four points, Democrats had a 387,000 vote lead in early and mail voting. At the time of that post, the GOP had a double-digit lead in the early/mail categories in the Democrat stronghold of Miami-Dade.
Noon reports from Miami-Dade indicate things are much worse for the Democrats than even the most optimistic GOPer would have dared dream. This is the state of play in a county that Joe Biden carried by nearly 8 points.
🚨 Miami-Dade is going to be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats.
In 2018, Dems outvoted Republicans by at least 70k votes.
In the 22 point shift in 2020, Dems still outvoted Republicans by 90k.
Republicans have a 10k vote lead in ballots cast as of right now. pic.twitter.com/7S45VTqxt8
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 8, 2022
This is how Josh Kraushaar writing at Axios describes the Miami-Dade contest:
2. The most important county: Miami-Dade, Florida.
- Republicans are confident that Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio will comfortably win their re-elections, but the bigger dynamic to follow is their margin of victory in the state’s most populous, majority-Hispanic county.
- Miami-Dade County hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1988 and hasn’t backed a GOP governor since 2002 (Jeb Bush). Rubio hasn’t won an outright majority in his home county for his Senate races, either.
- But both have a chance to win in Miami-Dade — result that would signal a GOP landslide and provide rocket fuel for a potential DeSantis presidential campaign.
If historical data holds true, these numbers represent over half the votes that will be cast today. Unless there is some huge break with historical patterns, Miami-Dade will vote Republican. Democrats have historically lagged on Election Day votes. Today the GOP started out with a 6,000 vote early/mail vote lead and has added 4,000 to that total. That lead will grow as the GOPs strongest voting hours are still to come.