In the special runoff primary for United States Senate in South Carolina between Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (SC-05), Decision Desk HQ has projected that Darline Graham is the Republican nominee. Graham defeated Norman 53 to 47, with 87 percent of precincts reporting as of this writing.

Prediction market Kalshi projected that Darline Graham would prevail and was fairly close to the actual margin.

Recent Trafalgar Group polling had the race as a statistical tie. But despite Norman's declaration that Graham was too inexperienced to be elected to a full Senate term, the nostalgia hangover and name recognition from Sen. Darline Graham's late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, as well as the banner of brief incumbency, helped to give Graham an edge. 

While Norman touted his solid conservative record, his initial 2024 endorsement of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley over then-former President Donald Trump still evoked a bad taste in the mouths of South Carolina voters.

In spite of what many Republicans felt was a lackluster August 18 debate performance against Norman, Graham pulled it out, in no small part from the endorsements of President Donald Trump and SC Republican senior Senator Tim Scott, which helped to give her a significant bump.

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Graham will face Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, in the November midterms.