More Good News for Republicans in That MN Senate Race

Republicans have a real chance at the Senate seat in Minnesota. 

The Republican candidate, Michele Tafoya, has been closing in, especially after she crushed the Democrat candidate, Peggy Flanagan, in their debate.  

One of the big reasons for that, in addition to Tafoya being a strong candidate and Flanagan being a horrible candidate, is the fraud scandal in the state. Flanagan has tried to run away from any responsibility for it, despite having been the Lt. Governor of the state. That's not a good look. 

We've been reporting on this, and now even NBC's data analyst Steve Kornacki is confirming it, noting there "does seem to be a tide that's working against the Democrats." 

Steve Kornacki sees tide "working against" Democrat in the Minnesota Senate race “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats” https://t.co/lJ8GtOE2cK

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 22, 2026

Kornacki notes Gov. Tim Walz didn't run again in part because of the scandal, and that Tafoya is quite rightly saying if you're upset about the scandal, don't vote for Flanagan. 

That's not all. Now Cook Political Report has moved the race in the direction of the Republicans.

The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race toward Republicans on Tuesday, another sign that a contest Democrats once expected to win comfortably has become increasingly competitive in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Cook moved the race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL broadcaster, from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”

The shift is an unwelcome development for Democrats, who are trying to regain control of the Senate but now face a competitive race in a state that has long been reliably blue in federal elections.

So while it's still leaning Democrat, the average is now within about three points. And given what we've seen in polling, and how it tends to overestimate Democrats in many cases, it's hard not to feel it might even be closer than that. 

That's sounding very winnable, as is Michigan. That would be pretty stunning in a midterm year if the Republicans were able to pull off two such flips in states where the seats have been Democrat for so long. If they could, that would certainly help their chances of holding onto the Senate. 

As I noted on Thursday, the Democrats — or specifically Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05) and state Sen. Omar Fateh are welcoming Hasan Piker to the state on Monday for a podcast, further exacerbating concerns about how radical the Democrats are. That's also not going to help Flanagan in a tight race.