That Wave Is Coming: More Races Just Moved Toward the GOP

Townhall Media

We’ve been saying that the momentum seems to be all toward the Republicans at this point. We’ve seen even in New York that Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) polling having him in a dead heat with Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul, which is another big sign that Democrats are in deep trouble in the midterms.


According to the Fox News Power Ranking, 5 races in the blue Northeast just shifted towards the Republicans.

Fox is also predicting the likely scenario in the race for the House to be 233 for the Republicans and 202 for the Democrats. They also noted that the “ideal” night for Republicans could mean that they walk away with 249 seats.

The first race they are counting is the Hochul-Zeldin race. Then there are 4 House races.

Fox has moved House races in the GOP’s favor in New York and New Jersey, noting that the weakness at the top of the Democratic ticket isn’t helping the Democrats and is one of the things helping to drive the move to the Republicans. In NY’s 22nd District (which had Rep. John Katko (R-NY) retiring) between Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams, they just moved to lean Republican because the recent polling has Williams up by 5 points. In the 17th District, Sean Patrick Maloney chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and is the incumbent but because of the redistricting, he’s still “new” to many of the voters and it’s a tight race that Fox just moved from lean Democrat to a toss-up. If the GOP can pick him off that would be a big blow to the Democrats and he may just do that. Two other races — in the 4th District in New York and the 3rd District in New Jersey also just moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”


Fox is also noting the Republicans up in the generic ballot among the people who said they will be “certain to vote.”

This increase for the GOP comes as the party makes gains in national polling. Two weeks into October, our Fox News Poll showed Republicans taking the lead on the generic ballot among voters who said they felt “certain to vote” in the midterms. Now, multiple polls that break out their results among β€˜certain’ or β€˜likely’ voters are showing a small GOP advantage. It comes at a time when millions of Americans are already voting. Barring a late October surprise, it is difficult to see how the race for control of Congress could change direction.

That’s sounding very red wave to me. But pollster Nate Cohn is indicating it could be even bigger than Fox’s prediction if all the indications manifest. It could truly be a rout.


Consider, for instance, that a three-point Republican lead on the generic ballot is seven percentage points better for Republicans than Mr. Biden’s national four-point victory in 2020. If every district finished that far to the right of the presidential election result, Republicans would come away with 259 districts β€” an almost 50-seat gain and the largest Republican majority since the Great Depression.

Now, Cohn leaves himself some leeway in his post. But bring on the wave, I do think it’s coming.


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