New Poll Indicates More Good Midterm News for GOP -- in Deep-Blue Rhode Island

We’ve been prognosticating a lot regarding the upcoming midterms.

The polls, in general, are looking good for the Republicans regarding the House and, as I’ve noted, the movement in the Senate has also generally been toward the Republican candidates. Even CNN threw the Democrats under the bus when it comes to who Americans prefer right now. “Who can best handle the issue you think is the nation’s most important,” voters were asked. Harry Enten said that voters trust Republicans to best handle whatever that issue is “by a 48 percent to 37 percent margin.”


But we would be remiss if we didn’t note a remarkable House race shaping up in Rhode Island and talk about what it may say about the midterms.

Former Cranston mayor, Republican Allan Fung is up by six points in a race for Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional district over Democrat Seth Magaziner, 46 percent to 40 percent, as we now count down to the election.

Nine percent are undecided and four percent support an independent candidate.

That would be the first time since 1992 that a Republican is “positioned to win” a Congressional race in deep-blue Rhode Island, as WPRI notes.

I would note it’s a small sample for a poll — 254 likely voters and it’s still within the margin of error. But Fung also lead in a Boston Globe poll in June as well as an internal poll in July. The six-point lead is also the same as it was in the last public survey taken, despite a lot of negative TV ads against him. So it appears like a solid lead. The left has been attacking him over the Republican position on abortion, but the most important issue according to the poll is the rising cost of living which Fung has focused his message on.


One of the things that is making him such a strong candidate is revealed in this latest poll.

The poll shows Fung’s lead is built in part on his outsized strength with Democrats, 24% of whom are backing him. “If he can hold onto that he’s going to be in a decent position because normally Republicans don’t get a quarter of the Democratic vote,” Fleming said.

By contrast, Magaziner is only supported by 63% of Democrats in the poll, and he is trailing Fung among independents 47% to 36%.

Meanwhile, some on the left have some issues with Magaziner.

So that disturbance may be cutting into the people on the left who would come out for him. Also, 48 percent in the poll say Rhode Island is headed in the wrong direction versus 35 percent who say the state is headed in the right direction. So that isn’t going to break well for the Democrats, even in a blue state.


What does this say about the House race in general? I think it is one more data point that indicates the red wave is coming, although it certainly helps that Fung appears to be a solid candidate as well. But if you can finally get a Republican in after 30 years, there surely is a positive movement underway for the Republicans, even in a deep blue state.


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