Not Only Are the Polls With Trump Since the Raid, So Are His Odds for 2024

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

I wrote earlier about how outraged Americans have been by the FBI raid on President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. It was a grievous mistake that awakened the sleeping giant. The new Trafalgar/COSProject poll shows that it has increased the desire of Republicans and independents to vote and the majority of those people believe this is an action against Trump by his political enemies. That was also a poll weighted toward Democrats, so it was all the more significant.


As the president of Convention of States Action Mark Meckler explained in a statement about the poll, “This gestapo-style injustice has created a voting surge that is so significant, the polling doesn’t even begin to reflect what is coming from grassroots voters in November.”

Now the latest election betting odds are showing that the raid isn’t stopping the support for President Donald Trump. Both he and Gov. Ron DeSantis — another possible Republican candidate for 2024 — are seeing a “good boost” in the betting odds, according to a betting wrap-up from Covers. You can see their interactive display on the website that shows the trajectory since the inauguration.

“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home was searched by the FBI in recent days, but that hardly made an impact on the 45th president’s election odds,” Covers said.

The shift toward Trump started last year and he’s been leading in the odds since November of last year. The odds still have him clearly on top with DeSantis close behind.

“Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650. Those odds have shifted massively and Trump is now leading the field as the 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +275 (implied probability = 26.67%), followed closely by DeSantis at +300 (25.00%). Biden has now dropped to third place at +600 (14.29%), while Harris has plummeted all the way to fourth place at +1,400 (6.67%).”


If anyone thought that this raid was going to help the Democrats in the polls or the betting odds, not so much. The Biden and Harris dropped even more after the raid. On August 4, Joe Biden had been at 15.38 percent and Harris at 8.33 percent.

There’s no doubt that Democrats and their operatives in government are going to throw anything they can against the wall so they don’t lose in 2022 and 2024. But the people are fired up and the odds are with Trump and the Republicans now.



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