One of the big reasons we’ve gotten to where we are now with Russia and Ukraine was that Germany and Joe Biden indicated that they were just not serious when it came to Nord Stream 2. When Joe Biden waived sanctions on it and Germany indicated they were willing to make themselves beholden to Russia for their energy, Vladimir Putin knew that he was being given a green light. He saw weakness and lack of resolve all over the place. While he’s had designs on Ukraine for years, that likely helped him to believe that there would be no great consequences from these feckless people.

But Germany pulled a move Putin likely figured they wouldn’t — they effectively stopped the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcing that he was going to halt the process of certifying the pipeline because of Putin’s statement recognized two areas in Ukraine — Donetsk and Luhansk — as “independent” countries, setting up a thin rationale for him to move in to “protect” their “independence.” He said his action was in response to Putin’s declaration.

European Union foreign ministers are meeting on Tuesday to decide on more sanctions. But armored vehicles were already reported to have been sighted in Donetsk, so the Russian action appears already underway.

Had they taken this move a week ago, it might have had an effect; it’s questionable what effect it will have now, with Putin’s action already underway. This all started sliding because Joe Biden waived sanctions on the pipeline in May 2021 despite the U.S.’s long-term opposition to the pipeline. Then Biden made a succession of moves and remarks that emboldened Putin. But Putin also knew based on Barack Obama-Joe Biden’s prior response in 2014, that he would face weakness from Biden. The Democrats had the opportunity to cut the pipeline off once again when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) called for a vote on sanctions for it last month. Instead of standing with U.S. interests and Ukraine, the Democrats not only stood with Putin but they went full-on hypocrite, using the filibuster rule, to kill Cruz’s bill.

You still have no substantial action from Biden — the “sanctions” they spoke about Monday night were so toothless even CNN recognized they were nothing. They even said that Putin moving into Donetsk and Luhansk wouldn’t necessarily warrant the sanctions Biden had been contemplating. As I noted last night, shades of “minor incursion.”

Putin saw that pattern of weakness from Biden and the Democrats — it’s why he moved in 2014 and is moving now. It’s why he didn’t move when President Donald Trump was in office. He knows he has limited time before Republicans come back in and he has to move now.

Will this or the other sanctions contemplated mean anything at this point?

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had previously shrugged off sanctions.

‘Our European, American, British colleagues will not stop and will not calm down until they have exhausted all their possibilities for the so-called ”punishment” of Russia,’ he said.

‘They are already threatening us with all manner of sanctions or, as they say now, ‘the mother of all sanctions’,’ Lavrov said.

‘Well, we’re used to it. We know that sanctions will be imposed anyway, in any case. With or without reason.’

We’ll have to see what the response to that and the other new sanctions are, but now that he’s committed the action, he’s unlikely to back down.

So congratulations, Joe Biden, you have yet another foreign policy disaster on your hands.