The news is breaking this morning that Joe Biden is going to announce that they have a basic framework deal on his Build Back Better social spending reconciliation bill.

The word is that Biden will tell Democrats this morning in a meeting to get them all on board.

A lot of the concessions over the past few days seem to have been in the direction of trying to make the moderates including Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) more amenable to the deal since without their votes the Democrats have no deal. As we have previously noted, they’ve cut the number which had originally been at $3.5 trillion back a lot to appease Manchin and they reportedly also dropped parts of the bill that he thought were going to break the bank, including paid family leave.

Here’s a little window into where they may be right now — this is similar to what we were already saying on the numbers.

Biden plans to tell Dems that he trusts that Manchin and Sinema will vote for $1.75T package — and they should too, per person briefed.

But there are up to 55 House progressives who are NO on the infrastructure bill right now without bill text or passage of larger bill, I’m told

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 28, 2021

But they have no Congressional Budget Office (CBO) score on any of this yet, so this is all just an estimate.

The real question is how bad is the stuff that is still left in there? Because there definitely was a lot bad besides just the price tag, as we have said.

The other thing is even if Biden thinks they have a deal if they’ve come together with Manchin and Sinema, it remains to be seen if all the moderates agree and if they can get the progressives on board. They want the progressives to sign onto and vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill this week based on the promise of a framework of the deal on the reconciliation bill. But first, will they go along with that timing? Plus some are still steaming at the things that the moderates may have forced out of that bill, like paid leave.

Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) has said that a framework will not be enough to secure their votes for infrastructure. So it still remains to be seen if they will have them aboard on this and on the infrastructure bill.

AOC says she's a NO if infrastructure bill comes to a vote tomorrow. "I don't see how ethically I can vote to increase U.S. climate emissions."

And says a "framework" is not enough on larger bill; needs detailed bill text.

"We have had framework for six months. We need text." pic.twitter.com/adFsbGl7h4

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 27, 2021

According to CNN’s Manu Raju, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has told the House progressives he backs their position against moving ahead with the infrastructure bill until the larger economic package moves through the House at the same time,

New – In a key sign of the challenges facing Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders told House progressives he backs their position against moving ahead with the infrastructure bill until the larger economic package moves through the House at the same time, per two sources

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 28, 2021

So will they actually be able to announce they have a deal here? It doesn’t exactly sound like they’re there if the progressives are still objecting to the timing.

But if the progressives now hold up a vote on infrastructure, even with an alleged framework for the bigger reconciliation bill, the liberal anger is going to shift on them next.

So hold onto your hat and pull out the popcorn, we shall have to see where this lands.