There’s a new poll out that is post-debate and post-news of President Donald Trump getting the Wuhan coronavirus. As such, it provides an interesting window into what voters may be thinking about those two events.
The Zogby poll shows that the President has continued to narrow the polling numbers gap with Joe Biden.
Their July 8th poll showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 42%, their August 29th poll had Biden leading by six points (48% to 42%).
But now, their poll has Biden only leading by two points, 49% to 47%, with 4% not sure. That’s basically a statistical dead-heat. If you factor in the “shy Trump” vote, it might even put Trump on the winning side of the poll.
The former VP is leading among Democrats 91%-8%, voters 18-29 years of age (60%-35%) and those 30-49 (50%-45%), as well as among women (56%-41%), Progressives (85%-15%), Liberals (85%-14%) and Moderates (58%-36%). He also leads among Hispanics is 61%-34% and Blacks (87%-11%).
The President, who was hospitalized before the poll was launched, leads among fellow Republicans (94%-6%), voters 50-64 (53%-45%) and those over 65 (50%-47%). As of now, Mr. Trump is capturing a slight majority of Catholic voters (51%-46%), Evangelicals (68%-32%), Conservatives (78%-18%), and Very Conservative voters (92%-8%). He also is ahead among Whites (56%-40%) and parents of children under 17 living at home (54%-40%).
Now, the numbers tally with what we previously reported — that Trump has made inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote, with numbers higher than what he got in 2016. Other polls have Trump making even greater inroads with Black voters as we’ve also previously reported.
Pollster John Zogby had predicted Biden would widen his lead after the announcement about Trump coming down with the virus, but that didn’t happen.
“Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization,” Zogby said. “His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016.”
Zogby noted trouble points for Biden.
First, his numbers among Hispanics and Black voters were lower than they needed to be to ward off Trump.
His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Second, Biden had also lost ground among independents with their last poll showed Biden leading strongly among independents but now the two candidates were tied with 12% still undecided.
Zogby also echoed the likelihood that Trump could win the “count on Election Day” but that Biden might have a lot of mail-ins come after Election Day.