One of the more accurate polls in in 2016, one of the few that gave President Donald Trump a chance, was the IBD/TIPP poll.
They’re out with a new poll and it has some good news for President Donald Trump.
#NEW National Post-Debate Poll:
IBD/TIPP (LV, 9/30-10/1 )
A 3 point shift towards Trump in a week
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2020
It shows that post the debate, the national race has tightened considerably. The poll went from early September where they had Joe Biden up by 8 points at 49% to 41%, to now Biden only being up by 2.7 points, 48.6% to 45.9% among likely voters. It’s been a consistent trend toward Trump.
Trump leads among white voters, 53-42%. Pew Research says Trump won among white voters in 2016, 54%-39%. [….]
Biden has a solid lead among voters age 18-24 (70%-21%) and voters 65 and up (51.5%-44%). Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.
Trump leads among voters age 25-44 (48%-46%) and 45-64 (52%-43%).
The poll was taken prior to the news breaking on Friday morning that Trump had contracted the Wuhan coronavirus so it’s not clear how that will affect the poll.
Part of those numbers may be that, as the poll suggests, that he’s increased his minority support. He has 28% of the Hispanic vote in 2016. IBD’s poll shows him at 36.5%. He had 8% of the black vote, but IBD indicates him at 15%. Now some polls like Rasmussen have his black approval higher than that and in places like Florida some polls are even suggesting Trump might be leading among Hispanics.
This poll was not appreciably weighted toward Democrats and it’s unclear there’s any ‘hidden Trump’ vote not accounted for.
Trump’s approval was also on the rise again, post the debate, according to the Washington Examiner:
Sliding from 52% approval over the weekend to 46% Wednesday, Trump is back up to 49% Thursday in the daily Trump tracking poll of likely voters from Rasmussen Reports.
According to the poll analysis, “This survey is the first to include a night of polling following the first presidential debate between Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden. The president’s approval ran in the low 50s for 10 days through the end of last week but dropped as low as 46% in the first three days of this week following his nomination Saturday of federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court. Now his approval appears to be on the rise again. By next Monday morning, all 1,500 voters in the daily tracking survey will have been polled following Tuesday night’s contentious debate.”
Meanwhile, Gallup pushed Trump’s approval rating up on Thursday to 46% from 42%. And, it said, “56% expect Trump will win the election; 40% think Biden will.”