Dem Data Firm Says the Quiet Part Out Loud: Trump Might Appear to Win Big on Election Night

AP featured image
A Miami-Dade County Elections Department employee places a vote-by-mail ballot for the August 18 primary election into a box for rejected ballots as the canvassing board meets at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department, Thursday, July 30, 2020, in Doral, Fla. President Donald Trump is for the first time publicly floating a “delay” to the Nov. 3 presidential election, as he makes unsubstantiated allegations that increased mail-in voting will result in fraud. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Democrats have been signaling that they know they’re in trouble with Joe Biden as their candidate.

The numbers are beginning to be such that it’s clear the momentum now is with the president.

This is why the Democrats are suddenly recognizing and addressing the riots.

They’ve already started casting doubt over the election with the postal service conspiracy over mail in voting, claiming that President Donald Trump is somehow trying to steal the election. They don’t explain how and it’s actually they who are attacking the USPS.

They’re apparently hoping they can pull off something like the ballot harvesting that they did in California, where Republicans on election night appeared to have won, but over the weeks after, ballots just kept coming until suddenly voila, Democrats won.

According to Axios, the Democratic data firm Hawkfish, which is funded by Michael Bloomberg, is warning folks that while Trump may “appear” to have a big election victory of election night, that because Republicans may come out to vote in person more than Democrats who may vote more by mail that the the apparent victory might melt away to a Biden “victory” as more ballots come in.

Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsoh called it a “mirage.”

“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” he said.

“When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,” Mendelsohn said. “It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.”



Under one of the group’s modeling scenarios, Trump could hold a projected lead of 408-130 electoral votes on election night, if only 15% of the vote by mail (VBM) ballots had been counted.

Once 75% of mail ballots were counted, perhaps four days later, the lead could flip to Biden’s favor.
This particular modeling scenario portrays Biden as ultimately winning a massive victory, 334-204.

Sounds like they’re priming the pump to set the stage.

This is why Hillary Clinton was also advising the other day that Biden should not concede under any circumstances.

Interesting that a Democratic firm is not predicting a win on election night for Biden. That tells you what they think of where the numbers really are.

They apparently all see Trump winning the in-person vote so their only hope in somehow busting out the mail in.

While it’s possible to pull off the ballot harvesting in California, it becomes much more problematic to try to pull it off on a national scale. It can be done in the local or Congressional elections because the differences are small.

So is the purpose of this to jack up Democrats to not accept the results and create chaos after Trump wins? Or do they really think they can pull this off?


Let’s make sure that Trump wins by enough that none of this can be pitched. But hopefully, GOP are ready for this, because the signals are all there.

HT: Twitchy


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