We’ve been seeing a lot of indicators that since the conventions the momentum has shifted and President Donald Trump has been getting a big bump.
As we reported, at the end of the Democratic convention, Trump got a big bump among independents, jumping five points to a ten point lead, in a poll. Another poll showed a ten point edge with swing voters who had a positive view of Trump vs. a positive view of Joe Biden. Minority numbers also jumped, showing a nine point bump up in black approval as well as a two point increase in Hispanic approval during the RNC.
Another interesting thing we reported earlier, that there seems to be suppression of more polls now coming out after the Republican convention.
OK folks, no joke, this is now a national poll suppression story.
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 31, 2020
Those polls must be pretty bad and might explain why Democrats have now been trying to change the perception of their handling of the riots. An Express poll has Trump in a three-point lead and Rasmussen has a survey that shows Trump is just one point shy of overtaking Biden, according to our prior reporting.
Now there’s one more thing that’s definitely pretty visually amazing. The betting odds are now virtually tied for the 2020 presidential election at 50.1 for Biden and 49.1 for Trump.
Betting odds are now virtually tied for the 2020 presidential election.
• Biden: 50.6%
• Trump: 49.1%
Biden was leading 61-37 just one month ago.
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 30, 2020
This is the Real Clear Politics average of the betting odds since the start of the Dem’s Convention. It shows the impact of both parties’ conventions on the odds of Biden or Trump of prevailing. The opinion of people willing to put their money on the line is pretty clear. pic.twitter.com/EVwRsP8z3v
— Andy Puzder (@AndyPuzder) August 30, 2020
One can see how the rise for Trump came back completely in August and why Democrats must now be freaking out. Biden was leading 61-37 just one month ago, that’s an astounding crash by Biden and a stunning bump by Trump.
The average is gathered from seven different betting marketplaces.
Factoring in the “hidden Trump” vote as well as the impact of the violence, they’re thinking Trump’s chances will continue to rise.
JPMORGAN: “Trump’s re-election chances are rising, .. due to two effects: 1) the impact of the degree of violence in protests on public opinion and voting patterns and 2) a bias in polls due to Trump voters being more likely to decline or mislead polls.” – @MarkoKolanovic4 pic.twitter.com/kGTDMKElWp
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 31, 2020