For months, Democrat Ralph Northam looked to be cruising to a win, set to be Virginia’s next Governor. But as election day nears, his lead is falling fast.

In this combination photo, Republican gubernatorial candidate, Ed Gillespie appears at a debate at the University of Virginia-Wise in Wise, Va., Oct. 9, 2016 , left, Libertarian candidate for Virginia governor Cliff Hyra appears during an interview in Richmond, Va., on Sept. 22, 2017 and Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam appears during an interview in Richmond, Va., on Sept. 18, 2017. The major party candidates in Virginia’s closely watched race for governor are both promising to improve the state’s health care system. But Gillespie and Northam differ sharply on how to curb costs and increase care. Hyra favors less government intervention in the health care system. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Ed Gillespie, the Republican, isn’t winning the race, but he’s competitive. Despite the crazy-looking Quinnipiac polls which show Northam up by double digits, with a rising lead, every other poll shows Gillespie getting close.

Washington Post’s own poll has Northam’s lead collapsing. Just a few weeks ago, WaPo had Northam up 53-40, for a big 13 point lead. But now the lead is down to 49-44 in their new poll this week. A 5 point lead, down from that 13, is a gigantic drop.

Gillespie has the momentum. But he’s never won a race in his life, and the Democrats are running desperate, lunatic ads against him. Can he finish strong?