It really is amazing how close the polling has gotten at the end. Gary Johnson’s support is cratering, as Republicans unhappy with Donald Trump are deciding that Johnson is even worse!
But is it enough to get Trump over the top?
Since yesterday evening we’ve had three more state swings: Florida flipped back to Hillary Clinton, which is of course a big shift away from the Republicans. But Maine’s second district went back to Trump, along with New Hampshire. Trump gaining in the lily-white far northeast, while dropping in the more diverse large state.
The net of that is that Trump is further behind than he was yesterday, with Clinton ahead 297-241. As usual, it gets worse when you take into account states that are effectively toss-ups.
Currently RCP has 150 EVs in the toss-u column. Clinton only needs 46 EVs to get there. Pennsylvania and Virginia are looking very good for her, so those are 33 she’s likely to net. That just leaves 13 more. Se can get those from Colorado plus either New Hampshire or Nevada. She can also get those votes straight up with Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, or Georgia.
Hillary Clinton has many paths to win, while Trump virtually has to run the table.
As we enter the final weekend, Donald Trump is losing and has little time left to turn it around, unless all the polls are wrong!