After the Republican National Convention, the polls showed a predictable and standard post-convention bounce for Donald Trump. He took the lead, and the Internet was on FIRE about it!
I warned that it was normal, and reassured people not to panic. Looks like I was right.
The site that got the most attention was Nate Silver’s 538. Trump first took a brief, slight lead in the “Now-cast” that projects “Who would win an election today.” He then took a momentary lead in the “Polls-only forecast,” never taking a lead in the “Polls-plus forecast” that combines polling with economic and historical trends.
Trump reached a peak of 55-45 over Hillary Clinton in the Now-cast, but that’s plunged back to a 64-36 lead for Clinton.
In the pure polling forecast, Trump eked outa 50.1-49.9 lead, but that has been erased as Clinton is now up 53-47.
And finally in the all-around Polls-plus forecast, Trump never lead. The conventions did not and have not changed the fundamentals of the contest, so Clinton’s 62-38 advantage remains unmoved.
Donald Trump needs to win states that Barack Obama won. Instead he’s looking at losing states that Barack Obama lost. That’s backward movement, and foretells a GOP disaster in November.