Just how bad can it get for Donald Trump in November?

Recently we’ve had the Great Overcorrection going on. People who, like me, underestimated Trump’s ability to win GOP primaries*, are rushing to say that of course he can win the general election. After all, the reasoning goes, they said he can’t in the primaries! Therefore he can win anything!

But no, it’s bad. And here’s how bad it can get.


Donald Trump Must Never Be President

Let’s start with the 2012 Electoral College map. It’s not a perfect model of this election, thanks to the end of the Obama effect, but it’s the best place we have to begin.

2012-Base

That’s a hole to climb out of. But consider the reports that Georgia is slipping away from the GOP. What kind of shift in the electorate would that require? 8 points:

R-8

But it gets worse. Trump is losing by double digits in Michigan, but Jeff Flake thinks Michigan is a better target than Arizona! What kind of shift would Arizona take? 10 points.

R-10

Now we’re getting somewhere. But again, the 2012 baseline is a case of fighting the last war. Obama isn’t walking through that door for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton is. So the poll averages don’t quite get Clinton to 385 electoral votes. No, they “only” get her to 355:

Poll Average

And it’s only May. Trump has so much further to fall before this is over. Hang on, Republicans. It’s only the modern polarization of the parties that will save Donald Trump from a 1964 or 1980 style rout.

* In my case, I underestimated the impact of $2 billion of free media, plus the rise of the Trump Democrats.