One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree


InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich.

NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.


Facts: 720 LVs, postweighted, MoE 3.8.

The result is a huge swing from just a few days ago. We’ve gone from Romney +11 to Gingrich +3, a 14 point swing, but it’s not zero-sum. Gingrich gains 11 points, Romney loses 3. Jon Huntsman’s voters shifted heavily toward Newt Gingrich if this poll pans out, and isn’t just some fluke result for that one candidate, the former Speaker.

This is now our first major contradiction in the South Carolina polling. Rasmussen Reports showed Romney +14 in that firm’s first post-Huntsman poll. CNN/ORC shows Romney +10 (33-23) in their first post-Huntsman reading.

So two polls continue to show Gingrich in the 21-24 band he’s held for the last two weeks, but one poll gives him a huge boost. I conclude it’s possible that SC has very suddenly gotten a lot more competitive, but it’s not a sure thing.

One poll, one time, from one pollster, when two others disagree, does not make a surge.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter


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