The facts: 328 GOP primary voters, by Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company, polled with mobile and landline handling. MoE 5.5.
These results are largely similar to the CBS results we saw. Perry ends up in fourth place, not fifth, but only by a hair. It’s nearly a coinflip whether he’s above or below the Pauldoza line. He’s got to turn this around or he just won’t be worth talking about anymore. And the key was in precisely what I said all along it would be in: When he led, his favorability ratings were sky high. Now Fox has him at -21. Yes, minus 21. Compare with Mitt Romney’s +4 and Herman Cain‘s +4. Note that these ratings may sound low, but it’s because they’re among all Registered Voters, not just the likely Republican primary voters.
Among those Republicans, Cain leads. He’s at 24 to Romney’s 20, and Perry’s 10. Perry breaks his string of single digit showings, but by the slimmest of margins.
Herman Cain’s moment is continuing. If he can keep his favorability ratings up, then I expect him to do well in the weeks ahead. In fact, if Romney has another showing like the last debate, with Cain keeping from stumbling, then Cain just might become a clear, sole frontrunner.