I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling.

I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, so I can escape without complete embarrassment.

Noem 49 – Herseth Sandlin 44, MoE 4.5. That’s the Rasmussen result today. That has me breathing easier, but it’s still definitely making me want to put my head in the sand after calling this race over.

It just goes to show that big shifts in a race are possible and can come when they are least expected. Polling measures more than just Likely Voter screens, partisan makeups, and all these other stats and crosstabs that we argue back and forth all day about. Sometimes, a cigar’s just a cigar.

From Unlikely Voter