Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried.
Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry about the need for another divisive recount.
The first poll comes from Mason Dixon and shows Sink ahead 44-40 (MoE 4), three points tighter than the firm had it last time.
Next we check in with Rasmussen Reports, whose latest poll shows Scott ahead 50-47 (MoE 4), two points tighter than the previous RR result.
If I average the two in my usual way I get a 53/47 split in Sink’s favor, practically indistinguishable from a coinflip. So yes, I am worried about a recount. With so many competitive races this year we’re practically guaranteed to have at least one, but it doesn’t mean I can’t root against having one.
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