From Unlikely Voter: I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too.

Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul Wellstone funeral?

Recent polling says Yes. Rasmussen matched up two Republicans against Democrat Tom Barrett, and it’s not good for Barrett. Yes, he does lead Mark Neumann, but only by a bare 45-44 (MoE 4.5) margin, but he trails Scott Walker 50-43.

The trend goes back a while, too. The last poll that showed Barrett ahead of Walker was in January, by the Mellman Group, by one point.

And Neumann is of little use to the Democrats, because PPP had Walker up 58-19 at the end of June.

Wisconsin Republicans have surprisingly much reason to be upbeat this year.