Barack Obama's disappointing 2Q?

Possibly the Obama campaign wants me to have that reaction, which was based on the news that they’ve released the total number of donors to date (just under 500,000) rather than the total amount collected in the second quarter. The campaign did so enjoy playing the expectations game in 2008. But what the heck: if it’s a trap, let me charge forward and trigger it anyway.


Why? Because the combined number for Obama/the DNC this quarter was $60 million. Assuming that the President’s on the hook for half of that, and assuming that every single of those 500K donors gave again this quarter, that means that the average donation from each donor would have to be $60. That doesn’t jibe with a prolonged pledge drive that was pretty much begging for first $5, then $3, in the last days of the quarter. Also, Mitt Romney hit between $15 and $20 million this quarter: if Obama made $30 million, well.

Again, there’s every possibility that the Obama campaign is merely trying to generate buzz by underplaying its fundraising totals. There’s also every possibility that the Obama campaign is hoping that all of those bloggers (including, well, me) and pundits who got burned in ’08 will be more shy about calling them out on shenanigans in ’12. You may safely assume from this post that I decline to play along.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Honestly, money’s not going to be the same issue in ’12 that it was in ’08, anyway.  The slack will be, as they say, taken up.

On both sides.


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