Will voters choose to move forward under the policies of a radical San Francisco leftist who has promised totally different policies as a presidential candidate than her policies of the past? Or will voters choose to move forward under the leadership of a former president who rightfully asks the question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago." That answer for millions of hardworking Americans of all stripes and ethnicities in a resounding no.

But here's the thing. 2024 America is not the same America as it was in 2016 when Donald Trump was inaugurated as this nation's 45th president. The left is markedly more radical, and unafraid to not only put their radicalism on full public display; but also to put their radical beliefs into their 2024 policy proposals.

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So the real question is whether a second Trump administration could defeat radicalism to the extent of putting the former president's policies and campaign promises into effect. I believe Trump could -- most or many of them.

Or, if Harris wins, will she kick her flip-flopping rhetoric to the curb and charge full-steam ahead with her radical policies of the past -- and then some? I believe she would -- in a heartbeat.

Lies and Damnable Lies

Let's be honest. All politicians lie. Some more, others less. 

They lie about facts, data, history, and each other. 

On one hand, Trump has called Harris "dumb" and stupid," and claimed she has a "low IQ." Harris is neither dumb nor stupid, but it is clear to most of us that the vice president's her IQ comes no where near approaching Mensa territory. 

What Harris is, is a terrible campaigner; a hollow politician who's incapable of making intelligible statements without reading from notes or her trusty teleprompter, and she's as dishonest as the day is long. Harris regularly rewrites history -- including her own -- while regularly comparing Trump to Adolf Hitler and his supporters to Nazis, and she will say whatever you want her to say, as long she thinks she can benefit by lying to you.

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What Trump is, is a terrific campaigner, the likes of which this country hasn't seen in decades or longer. Trump can work a crowd like nobody in politics. The enthusiasm he brings is infectious. His rally attendees treat him like a veritable rock star, which in many ways is precisely what he is.

Does the former president sometimes stretch the truth and over-promise? Of course he does, as do all politicians. The political world is black and white for Trump. Virtually everything, in his view, is either black or white. Everything is "the best you've ever seen" or "the worst you've ever seen." Everything is either "everybody" or "nobody." 

But here's the most important thing about Trump that is nonexistent in Harris: 

The 45th president says what he means and means what he says from a policy perspective. Does anyone not believe that if elected, Trump would put a stop the Biden-Harris border crisis in a New York minute? Does anyone (honest and objective) not believe that Trump would return to the economic policies of his first administration? Does anyone not believe that the former president would do whatever he has to do -- within the limits of his executive authority -- to fulfill his promises? 

I'm among constitutional conservatives who wish the former president would dial back the rhetoric and personal attacks. I'm also among those who know he won't. Besides, when the other side refers to him as a dictator-wannabe who would end democracy in America, do away with future presidential elections, and worse, Trump's attacks pale in comparison.

Early Voting

This is a biggie. With one-third of voters already having cast their their votes, troubling trends have emerged for the Harris-Biden ticket, while promising trends for Trump and Republican have continued as well. 

The Republicans are entering election day with a historic lead in a majority of states, figures show.

This is the first time that registered Republicans have outvoted registered Democrats in more states since at least 2008, with early voting traditionally favoured by Democrats.

Across two-thirds of states that produce early voting data by party, registered Republicans outperformed the Democrats in votes cast.

Crucially, early voting among Republicans is higher in Nevada and North Carolina, two key swing states that will determine the election.

They have also overtaken Democrats in Iowa and Florida, two states that historically tend to lean Republican, but more recently went blue.

Why the dramatic change? As former Clinton official David Axelrod said on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday: "There’s zero enthusiasm on the ground for Kamala Harris in the demographics that they need." 

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Yet, as baseball legend Yogi Berra is credited with saying: "It ain't over 'til it's over."

The Bottom Line

As I've said and written throughout the presidential campaign, I'm not in the prognostication business, and  I'm not about to start now. But I will suggest that if early voting trends continue on Election Day, Donald Trump will be elected the 47th president of the United States.