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The margin of victory in Ron DeSantis’s 2022 re-election win even surprised the Florida governor. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but could the popular Republican repeat his 19-point win on the national stage in the 2024 presidential election? Let’s let that marinate a bit, as we continue.

If your name isn’t Donald Trump or you’re not an unwavering fan of the former president, the 2024 GOP so far looks petty much like this:

Trump launched his candidacy to avenge his loss against Joe Biden on November 15, 2022 — even though he continues to insist he won in 2020. Former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador during Trump’s presidency, Nikki Haley announced her candidacy on February 14, while several other Republicans are either mulling their chances or waiting until they believe the time is right.

The biggest question of all remains if and or when DeSantis will pull the trigger.

Whether or not DeSantis does decide to run, he believes the 2024 Republican should be able to repeat his win on the national stage if they follow his model of ignoring polls and governing with their gut.

Spoiler: As reported by the Washington Examiner, DeSantis sure sounds like he thinks that Republican should and will be him. In his campaign-style autobiography, The Courage to be Free, DeSantis wrote:

From day one, I was fully prepared to let the political chips fall where they may. That we not only succeeded electorally but did so in dramatic fashion, demonstrates that doing good policy can lead to good politics. The Florida Blueprint is a simple formula: be willing to lead, have the courage of your convictions, deliver for your constituents, and reap the political rewards.

“This is a blueprint for America’s revival,” DeSantis added. “We’ve shown it can be done.” And that “it” was the largest gubernatorial win in Florida in a generation.

With DeSantis widely expected to enter the race by summer, pro-DeSantis PAC Ready for Ron is already pushing him to run, and he’s hands-down the only potential Republican challenging Trump in national polls — leading in some, behind in others.

Trump obviously thinks DeSantis will run, given he’s already busted out derogatory nicknames against the “ungrateful” and “disloyal” governor, most notably “Ron DeSanctimonious,” while sarcastically denying he floated “Meatball Ron” within his inner circle. DeSantis has refused to take Trump’s predictable bait, choosing instead to point to his runaway re-election win.

Writing in his book, DeSantis emphasized: “Whereas we had won in 2018 by just over 30,000 votes, in 2022 we won by more than 1.5 million votes — the largest raw vote margin of victory in Florida gubernatorial history.” He concluded with this:

We were able to accomplish these great electoral triumphs by taking the political road less traveled. We spent four years ignoring polls, setting out my vision for the state, successfully implementing that vision, and producing tangible results.

All true, but let’s get into a bit of analysis:

Presidential elections are unlike state or local elections in a few critical ways. With rare exceptions, a strong percentage — say, 80-85 percent, for example — of the popular vote is baked in before the first vote is cast. In addition, the independent vote is critical, as well. That said, a 19-point margin in a presidential race, in my not-so-humble opinion, would be rare indeed.

On the other side of the coin, Trump’s “us vs. them” approach, in which he pits “MAGA Republicans” not only against Democrats, as he should, but also against his definition of “RINOs,” meaning any and all Republicans who dare to refuse to walk lockstep behind him.

The Bottom Line

The greater the number of Republicans who enter the race — and the longer they stay in — the greater the advantage for Trump. Conversely, the fewer the candidates — and the sooner the contest becomes a two-person race — the better for (presumably) DeSantis.

Either way, we’re going to need a lot of popcorn and an abundance of fire extinguishers.