Hot off the presses less than 5 minutes ago, CNN/ORC released a poll that showed an even bigger post-convention bounce for Hillary Clinton than the CBS poll earlier today. The CBS poll showed Clinton receiving a 7 point bounce, going from 1 point behind to 6 points ahead. CNN shows Clinton receiving a much bigger bounce, going from 3 points behind to being 9 points ahead.
From the poll release:
In a two-way head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 43%, and in a four-way matchup including third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton leads 45% to 37% with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 5%.
Besides improving her standing against Trump, Clinton’s convention appears to have boosted the share of Americans who think her policies will move the country in the right direction (from 43% before either convention to 48% now), while Trump’s right direction number held roughly steady following the back-to-back political gatherings in Cleveland and Philadelphia.
Further, a majority of Clinton’s backers now say their vote is more to show support for her than to oppose Trump, a sharp shift since early May. Back then, 48% said their vote was one of support for the former secretary of state, 58% say so now. While Trump also improved his numbers on that metric, his voters are more evenly divided, with 47% saying they’re backing him to show support and 50% saying it’s more to oppose Clinton.
Terrible news across the board for Trump. More than half of his voters only support him because they oppose Clinton, even after a massive unity convention in which the whole party threw itself behind him. Meanwhile, Clinton managed to convince people to actually vote for her and her policies, while the country as a whole remains largely opposed to Trump. This is the sort of dynamic that could well lead to a potential landslide if it continues.
More evidence of that:
More of Clinton’s backers also say they are certain to support her come November: 44% of registered voters are Clinton supporters who say their mind is made up, while 36% say they are solidly behind Trump. Only about 16% of voters say their minds could change in the 99 days left between now and Election Day.
Consistent with what the CBS poll showed earlier today, a major part of the change is that Trump continues to shoot himself in the foot with self-identified conservatives and Republicans:
Republican Party unity, meanwhile, has faded some compared with a survey immediately after their convention. While 73% said they thought the GOP would unite by November in a post-GOP convention poll, just 66% say the same now.
The poll’s internals back this up. Clinton wins self-identified Liberals 86-8. Trump only wins self-identified conservatives 71-23. Clinton is also leading among Moderates 57-32. If Trump can’t make significant gains in one of those two groups, he is done for.