I don’t think I am going out on a limb here by saying that Rush Limbaugh has been… well, if not friendly to Donald Trump, at the very least not antagonistic to Donald Trump. I’m being generous to Rush here. But even Rush on today’s show acknowledged that even if Trump runs the table today in overwhelming fashion, that doesn’t really change the delegate calculus: it all comes down to Indiana and California.
RUSH: Now, as for what’s happening today, keeping today in perspective, it’s gonna be a great day for Trump. You got voters in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. So 172 delegates will be accounted for today. Trump is expected to win all five of these primaries.
He’s expected to win between 98 and 123 of the 172 delegates at stake. But all of this is expected — none of this is a surprise — and winning these delegates is not going to add or increase Trump’s chances of wrapping up the nomination. All of the projections people are making of total delegate count going into Indiana and then going into California, already include these. Now, I’m not trying to tamp down spirit today. I’m just trying to keep everything in perspective for you.
Whatever happens today has already been calculated in delegate projections. It’s already been factored, and it’s all based on polling data, and it’s probably true. Trump’s gonna sweep these five primary states. He’s gonna get these delegates, between 98 and 123. They are already accounted for. In other words, delegates that Trump wins today are not surprise delegates nobody expected to get added to the list. They’re already in everybody’s lists. So what it means is that, after today, the nomination is actually going to be determined by the 10 primaries left after today.
Rush also spent some time dealing with the nonsense from Trump supporters who are trying to claim that the nomination is being stolen from Trump due to the delegate process. He also got in a not-very-subtle jab at Trump and his supporters about the “whining” that they’ve been doing:
The very process that Trump claims is rigged will once again work to his benefit. His share of the delegates won on Tuesday will almost certainly exceed his share of the vote. Up to this point, Trump has earned 28% more delegates than his pro rata share of the vote would deem appropriate,” such, as an example, New York.
Trump got 60% of the vote and 95% of the delegates. He got many more delegates than you would think proportionate to the votes. So it works both ways. Now, of the 172 delegates that are available today, 118 of them will be formally pledged to a candidate on the first ballot, and it doesn’t matter who these delegates end up being.
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This is the irony that Scott Rasmussen was talking about:
“When you add it all up, Trump is likely to win less than 50% of the vote on Tuesday, but end up with between 57% and 72% of the delegates,” and nobody’s gonna complain because that’s the rules. That’s the way it works out. Nobody’s whining about it. It’s just the way it happens. But it’s not going to tell us any more than we already know. Not a lot, because all of this is already factored in.
If Rush had been doing this kind of actual analysis from day one, who knows what might have been different.