A new poll has been released by Fox Channel 10 in Phoenix, and it shows Trump holding a small but consistent lead in likely Arizona primary voter. It sure looks, at first blush, like John Kasich is going to give Donald Trump at least 58 delegates tomorrow, if not more.
Top line result of the poll: Trump 46, Cruz 33, Kasich 17. This poll does not show “second choice” numbers but it’s a fair bet that people who have not yet been assimilated into the Trump Bog are extremely highly resistant to assimilation on general principle; thus, most if not all of Kasich’s voters would be assumed to go to Ted Cruz in the event of Kasich’s exit from the race.
Of course, given the way polling has performed thus far, you can bet that Cruz’s support will be 5-10 points higher than his polling would indicate, and Trump will be a couple points lower. Don’t be surprised if this is a razor thin race tomorrow, with Kasich definitely costing Cruz the victory.