It’s official, the first polling numbers gathered after the DNC are in and… well, no one is really shocked.
After jumping into a tie with Hillary Clinton after the Republican National Convention, the latest National CBS poll has Donald Trump back down at 39%, while Clinton now sits at 46%. The polls show that Clinton rose four points after the DNC while Trump rose only two after the RNC. When you look at the CBS poll conducted after the RNC, this reveals an overall 7-point swing in favor of Hillary Clinton.
These numbers are not much different than in past two elections, however, as President Obama received similar bumps in both 2008 and 2012. While Clinton did see a nice rise in the polls, she did not match her husband Bill’s 13-point jump in 1992, the year he was first elected President. She also fell short of Al Gore’s numbers in 2000, where he received a 10-point boost in the polls but eventually lost the election in an incredibly close race.
When “lean voters” were included (that is, voters who are leaning towards one candidate or the other), Clinton leads Trump by 6 points. Clinton also retains her lead when Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is added into the mix.
The other interesting takeaway from the poll is the favorable/unfavorable numbers. Clinton’s favorable numbers rose 5 points, as 36% now view her positively. Her unfavorable numbers dropped from 56% to 50%. Donald Trump, on the other hand, returned to his pre-RNC favorability mark of 31%, while over half of registered voters still view him unfavorably.
All in all, this shows what pretty much everyone expected. The DNC, despite the email leak scandal, was much more organized and the speakers were substantially more high-profile (two President’s, a First Lady, the Vice President, those things matter). Trump had a brief moment of celebration, but Clinton took back her lead and will most likely hold on to it until November, barring any substantially damaging info from Wikileaks being dumped in the coming months or a complete collapse from the Clinton campaign.