POLL: Voters Weigh President Trump's Chance at Re-Election (With Some Surprising Results)

President Donald Trump points during a campaign rally Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2018, in Estero, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

President Donald Trump points during a campaign rally Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2018, in Estero, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara).

The midterm election results did not meet anyone’s expectations.


Before November 6th, each party predicted that their respective side would unleash a crashing wave onto their opponents. In the end, neither side really met this lofty goal. While the Democrats gained a majority in the House and will take control come January, Republicans kept hold of the Senate. There is certain to be a measure of Congressional deadlock in the near future.

Next up is the 2020 presidential election.

Despite the rampant dislike for President Trump in Democratic and even moderate circles, there is simply no suitable contender to his brand of politician. At least, this is true at the moment. Whether or not the Left coalesces behind some non-Hillary force remains to be seen. As of now, the names floating near the top are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and guy who lost to Ted Cruz, Robert “Beto” O’Rourke.

While it seems very likely that Donald Trump will be victorious on November 3, 2020, the polling looks a bit different.

In the latest Fox News poll, voters are not evenly split on his chances.


Thirty-nine percent of voters think he will be re-elected.

The percentage of those who believe he won’t be re-elected stands at fifty-two percent.

These results may seem a bit shocking to his supporters, but there’s something to keep in mind: President Trump’s results are better than his predecessor’s.

For comparison, former President Obama’s re-elect number was 29 percent at this same point in his presidency (December 2010).

That places Trump slightly ahead of the man who served two terms. This truth should soothe at least some MAGA fears.

“It’s instructive to compare President Trump’s numbers with those for President Obama,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson.

“Trump’s economic handling numbers are decent and his base is there, but his re-elect numbers are about the same as Obama’s from late 2010. He needs to expand his appeal and do better than break-even on the economy if he wants another four years.”

As expected, President Trump’s strongest marks have to do with the economy. But getting through to undecided and reluctant voters will require that he do more than maintain in this area.


If this administration desires another 4-year term, the man at the head of the pack must take a more gentle approach to his presidency. Instead of defaulting to insults, he would do well to react to criticism in a more substantive, and less superficial, tone. He should also tweet less. These changes would probably not pull anyone from the Democratic side into the GOP fold, but it would encourage more wandering Republicans to reconsider Trump one more time.

Considering what voters already think of his chances, that’s all he may need.

Kimberly Ross is a senior contributor at RedState and a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. Follow her on Twitter and Facebook. 


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